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Sea Level Rise Exposure and Municipal Bond Yields

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
  • Matthew T. Gustafson
  • Ryan C. Lewis
  • Michael Schwert

Abstract

Municipal bond markets begin pricing sea level rise (SLR) exposure risk in 2013, coinciding with upward revisions to worst-case SLR projections and accompanying uncertainty around these projections. The effect is larger for long-maturity bonds and is not solely driven by near-term flood risk. We use a structural model of credit risk to quantify the implied economic impact and distinguish the effects of underlying asset values and uncertainty. The SLR exposure premium exhibits a different trend from house prices and is unaffected by house price controls. Taken together, our results highlight the importance of climate uncertainty in driving municipal bond prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Matthew T. Gustafson & Ryan C. Lewis & Michael Schwert, 2022. "Sea Level Rise Exposure and Municipal Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 30660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30660
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    Cited by:

    1. Pramendra Singh Tank & Sanjay Kumar Jain & Balagopal Gopalakrishnan, 2023. "Do firms respond to commitments on climate change? Impact of COP21 on investment intensity," IIMA Working Papers WP 2023-08-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    2. repec:cte:wsrepe:37973 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mete Feridun & Hasan Güngör, 2020. "Climate-Related Prudential Risks in the Banking Sector: A Review of the Emerging Regulatory and Supervisory Practices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-20, July.
    4. Amine Ouazad & Matthew E. Kahn, 2023. "Mortgage Securitization Dynamics in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters: A Reply," Papers 2305.07179, arXiv.org.
    5. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Chabot, Miia & Brusset, Xavier & Courquin, Valentin, 2024. "Identifying assets exposed to physical climate risk: A decision-support methodology," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    6. Ströbel, Johannes & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2021. "What do you think about climate finance?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16622, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Michael Barnett, 2024. "A Run on Fossil Fuel? Climate Change and Transition Risk," Papers 2410.00902, arXiv.org.
    8. Colesanti Senni, Chiara & Goel, Skand & von Jagow, Adrian, 2024. "Economic and financial consequences of water risks: The case of hydropower," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    9. Celso Brunetti & Matteo Crosignani & Benjamin Dennis & Gurubala Kotta & Donald P. Morgan & Chaehee Shin & Ilknur Zer, 2024. "Climate-Related Financial Stability Risks for the United States: Methods and Applications," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 30(1), pages 1-37, October.
    10. Ma, Dandan & Zhang, Yunhan & Ji, Qiang & Zhao, Wan-Li & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2024. "Heterogeneous impacts of climate change news on China's financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    11. Lu, Runjing & Ye, Zihan, 2023. "Roe v. Rates: Reproductive Healthcare and Public Financing Costs," SocArXiv 7t5jz, Center for Open Science.
    12. Li, Xing & Zhou, Yanli & Zhu, Dixing & Ge, Xiangyu, 2024. "Research on effect of extreme climates penalties local government debt pricing: Evidence from urban investment bonds in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Cheng, Ruijie & Gupta, Bhavya & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2023. "Do green financial policies offset the climate transition risk penalty imposed on long-term sovereign bond yields?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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