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Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Erik Ens
  • Craig Johnston

Abstract

This paper adapts climate-economy models that have been applied in other contexts for use in climate-related scenario analysis. We consider illustrative scenarios for the global economy that could generate economic and financial risks. Our results suggest there are significant economic risks from climate change and the move to a low-carbon economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Ens & Craig Johnston, 2020. "Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change," Discussion Papers 2020-3, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:20-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carè, R. & Weber, O., 2023. "How much finance is in climate finance? A bibliometric review, critiques, and future research directions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    3. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    4. Mete Feridun & Hasan Güngör, 2020. "Climate-Related Prudential Risks in the Banking Sector: A Review of the Emerging Regulatory and Supervisory Practices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-20, July.
    5. Celso Brunetti & Matteo Crosignani & Benjamin Dennis & Gurubala Kotta & Donald P. Morgan & Chaehee Shin & Ilknur Zer, 2024. "Climate-Related Financial Stability Risks for the United States: Methods and Applications," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 30(1), pages 1-37, October.
    6. Mercy Berman DeMenno, 2023. "Environmental sustainability and financial stability: can macroprudential stress testing measure and mitigate climate-related systemic financial risk?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(4), pages 445-473, December.
    7. Miller, J. Isaac & Brock, William A., 2024. "Beyond RCP8.5: Marginal mitigation using quasi-representative concentration pathways," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    8. Boneva, Lena & Ferrucci, Gianluigi, 2022. "Inflation and climate change: the role of climate variables in inflation forecasting and macro modelling," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115533, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Economic models; Financial stability; International topics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • P1 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies
    • P18 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Energy; Environment
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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