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Managing beliefs about monetary policy under discretion

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  • Elmar Mertens

Abstract

In models of monetary policy, discretionary policymaking often lacks the ability to manage public beliefs, which explains the theoretical appeal of policy rules and commitment strategies. But as shown in this paper, when a policymaker possesses private information, belief management becomes an integral part of optimal discretion policies and improves their performance. ; Solving for optimal policy in a simple New Keynesian model, this paper shows how discretionary losses are reduced when the policymaker has private information. Furthermore, disinflations are pursued more vigorously, when the hidden information problem is larger, even when inflation is partly backward-looking.

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  • Elmar Mertens, 2010. "Managing beliefs about monetary policy under discretion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2010-11
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    1. Nunes, Ricardo, 2008. "Delegation and Loose Commitment," MPRA Paper 11555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    3. Elmar Mertens, 2010. "Discreet Commitments and Discretion of Policymakers with Private Information," 2010 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Jenny Tang, 2013. "Uncertainty and the signaling channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 15-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Yang Lu & Ernesto Pasten & Robert King, 2013. "Policy design with private sector skepticism in the textbook New Keynesian model," 2013 Meeting Papers 241, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.
    7. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
    8. Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2011. "Optimal Disinflation Under Learning," 2011 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Robert G. King & Yang K. Lu & Ernesto S. Past…N, 2008. "Managing Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1625-1666, December.
    10. Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2015. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 190-208.
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