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The great inflation of the 1970s

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  • Collard, Fabrice
  • Dellas, Harris

Abstract

Was the high inflation of the 1970s mostly due to incomplete information about the structure of the economy (an unavoidable mistake as suggested by Orphanides, 2000)? Or, to weak reaction to expected inflation and/or excessive policy activism that led to indeterminacies (a policy mistake, a scenario suggested by Clarida, Gali and Gertler, 2000)? We study this question within the NNS model with policy commitment and imperfect information, requiring that the model have satisfactory overall empirical performance. We find that both explanations do a good job in accounting for the great inflation. Even with the commonly used specification of the interest policy rule, high and persistent inflation can occur following a significant productivity slowdown if policymakers significantly and persistently underestimate "core" inflation. JEL Classification: E32, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris, 2004. "The great inflation of the 1970s," Working Paper Series 336, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1927-1950, November.
    2. Elmar Mertens, 2016. "Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 661-698, June.
    3. Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) & Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) & Goryunov, Eugene (Горюнов, Евгений) & Petrova, Diana, 2017. "Analysis of Approaches to Accounting of the Information Effects of Monetary Policy [Анализ Подходов К Учету Информационных Эффектов Денежно-Кредитной Политики]," Working Papers 031723, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    4. Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Inflation in the 70s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1765-1781, December.
    5. Thomas Mayer & Gunther Schnabl, 2022. "Japan's Low Inflation Conundrum," CESifo Working Paper Series 9821, CESifo.
    6. Marco Airaudo & Luca Bossi, 2017. "Consumption Externalities And Monetary Policy With Limited Asset Market Participation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 601-623, January.
    7. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2005. "Perhaps the FOMC did what it said it did : an alternative interpretation of the Great Inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 05-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    imperfect information; indeterminacy; inflation; Kalman filter; policy rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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