IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2003-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An empirical test of a two-factor mortgage valuation model: how much do house prices matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Downing
  • Richard Stanton
  • Nancy Wallace

Abstract

Mortgage-backed securities, with their relative structural simplicity and their lack of recovery rate uncertainty if default occurs, are particularly suitable for developing and testing risky debt valuation models. In this paper, we develop a two-factor structural mortgage pricing model in which rational mortgage-holders endogenously choose when to prepay and default subject to i. explicit frictions (transaction costs) payable when terminating their mortgages, ii. exogenous background terminations, and iii. a credit-related impact of the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) on prepayment. We estimate the model using pool-level mortgage termination data for Freddie Mac Participation Certificates, and find that the effect of the house price factor on the results is both statistically and economically significant. Out-of-sample estimates of MBS prices produce option adjusted spreads of between 5 and 25 basis points, well within quoted values for these securities.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Downing & Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2003. "An empirical test of a two-factor mortgage valuation model: how much do house prices matter?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-42
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2003/200342/200342abs.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2003/200342/200342pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-793, May.
    2. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 255-269, June.
    3. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley, 2003. "Woodhead Behavior and the Pricing of Residential Mortgages," Working Paper 8616, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    4. Dunn, Kenneth B & McConnell, John J, 1981. "A Comparison of Alternative Models for Pricing GNMA Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 471-484, May.
    5. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
    7. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    8. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    9. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1996. "The effect of income and collateral constraints on residential mortgage terminations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 235-261, June.
    10. Andrew Caplin & Charles Freeman & Joseph Tracy, 1993. "Collateral Damage: How Refinancing Constraints Exacerbate Regional Recessions," NBER Working Papers 4531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    12. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-299, August.
    13. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    14. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "On the Term Structure of Default Premia in the Swap and LIBOR Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1095-1115, June.
    15. Stanton, Richard Henry, 1996. "Unobservable Heterogeneity and Rational Learning: Pool-Specific versus Generic Mortgage-Backed Security Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 243-263, May.
    16. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    17. Jeremy C. Stein, 1993. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Downpayment Effects," NBER Working Papers 4373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Singleton, Kenneth J., 1985. "Testing specifications of economic agents' intertemporal optimum problems in the presence of alternative models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 391-413.
    19. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:375-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Sean Becketti & Charles S. Morris, 1990. "The prepayment experience of FNMA mortgage-backed securities," Research Working Paper 90-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C. & Muller III, Walter J. & Epperson, James F., 1995. "The Valuation at Origination of Fixed-Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-36, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hidetoshi Nakagawa & Tomoaki Shouda, 2004. "Analyses of Mortgage-Backed Securities Based on Unobservable Prepayment Cost Processes," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(3), pages 233-266, September.
    2. Toru Sugimura, 2004. "Valuation of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities with Default Risk Using an Intensity-Based Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(2), pages 185-214, June.
    3. Cristina Viegas & Jos� Azevedo-Pereira, 2012. "Mortgage valuation: a quasi-closed-form solution," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 993-1001, May.
    4. John Clapp & Yongheng Deng & Xudong An, 2005. "Unobserved heterogeneity in Models of Competing Mortgage Termination Risks," Working Paper 8585, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Downing, Chris & Stanton, Richard & Wallace, Nancy E., 2003. "An Empirical Test of a Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model: How Much Do House Prices Matter?," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt2qb613r5, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    3. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    4. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
    6. Duffie, Darrell, 2005. "Credit risk modeling with affine processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2751-2802, November.
    7. Augusto Castillo, 2004. "Firm and Corporate Bond Valuation: A Simulation Dynamic Programming Approach," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 41(124), pages 345-360.
    8. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2004. "Incorporating Systemic Influences Into Risk Measurements: A Survey of the Literature," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 161-191, October.
    9. Duarte, Jefferson & Longstaff, Francis A. & Yu, Fan, 2005. "Risk and Return in Fixed Income Arbitage: Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6zx6m7fp, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    10. Dragon Tang & Hong Yan, 2006. "Macroeconomic Conditions, Firm Characteristics, and Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 177-210, June.
    11. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011, January-A.
    12. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    13. Moraux, Franck, 2004. "Modeling the business risk of financially weakened firms: A new approach for corporate bond pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 47-61.
    14. Nystrom, Kaj & Skoglund, Jimmy, 2006. "A credit risk model for large dimensional portfolios with application to economic capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2163-2197, August.
    15. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2003. "Fixed-income pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1207-1246, Elsevier.
    16. Chen L. Miller, 2018. "Comparison of Two Affordable Housing Finance Channels," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 227-250.
    17. Giesecke, Kay, 2006. "Default and information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2281-2303, November.
    18. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    19. Barbedo, Claudio Henrique da Silveira & Lemgruber, Eduardo Facó, 2009. "A down-and-out exchange option model with jumps to evaluate firms' default probabilities in Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 179-190, September.
    20. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5, July-Dece.
    21. Viral V. Acharya & Jennifer N. Carpenter, 2002. "Corporate Bond Valuation and Hedging with Stochastic Interest Rates and Endogenous Bankruptcy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1355-1383.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.