IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfwp/96581.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Currency Areas, Labor Markets, and Regional Cyclical Sensitivity

Author

Abstract

In his papers during the lead up to the birth of the European Monetary Union, Obstfeld considered whether the countries forming the EMU were sufficiently similar to survive a single monetary policy--and more importantly, whether they had the capacity to adjust to asymmetric shocks given a single monetary and exchange rate policy. The convention at the time was to take the United States as the baseline for a smoothly functioning currency union. We document the evolution of the literature on regional labor market adjustment within the United States, expanding on stylized facts illustrating how stratification in local labor market outcomes appears far more persistent today than 30 years ago in the context of what Obstfeld and Peri (1998) call non-adjustment in unemployment rates. We then extend the currency union literature by adding an additional consideration: differences in regional cyclical sensitivity. Using measures of cyclicality and Obstfeld-Peri-type non-adjustment, we explore the characteristics of places that can get left behind when local labor markets respond differently to national shocks and discuss implications for policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Katheryn N. Russ & Jay C. Shambaugh & Sanjay R. Singh, 2023. "Currency Areas, Labor Markets, and Regional Cyclical Sensitivity," Working Paper Series 2023-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:96581
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2023-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/wp2023-22.pdf
    File Function: Full text - article PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24148/wp2023-22?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berry, Christopher R. & Glaeser, Edward L., 2005. "Divergence of Human Capital Levels across Cities," Working Paper Series rwp05-057, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Robynn Cox, 2010. "Crime, Incarceration, and Employment in Light of the Great Recession," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 283-294, September.
    3. Dave Donaldson & Richard Hornbeck, 2016. "Railroads and American Economic Growth: A "Market Access" Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 799-858.
    4. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Cecile Gaubert, 2020. "Optimal Spatial Policies, Geography, and Sorting [“Theories of Systems of Cities,”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 959-1036.
    5. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren, 2018. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility I: Childhood Exposure Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1107-1162.
    6. Brad Hershbein & Bryan A. Stuart, 2024. "The Evolution of Local Labor Markets after Recessions," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 399-435, July.
    7. Rebecca Diamond & Enrico Moretti, 2021. "Where is Standard of Living the Highest? Local Prices and the Geography of Consumption," NBER Working Papers 29533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Felipe Schwartzman, 2019. "Cognitive Hubs and Spatial Redistribution," NBER Working Papers 26267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan & Hood, Kyle K., 2016. "Worker migration or job creation? Persistent shocks and regional recoveries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-16.
    10. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 381-476.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld., 1998. "EMU: Ready, or Not?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-101, University of California at Berkeley.
    12. Niki Lockette & William Spriggs, 2016. "Wage Dynamics and Racial and Ethnic Occupational Segregation Among Less-Educated Men in Metropolitan Labor Markets," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 35-56, March.
    13. Kaplan, Greg & Mitman, Kurt & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Non-durable consumption and housing net worth in the Great Recession: Evidence from easily accessible data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    14. Donald Freeman, 2012. "On (Not) Closing the Gaps: The Evolution of National and Regional Unemployment Rates by Race and Ethnicity," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 267-284, June.
    15. Juan Herreño & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2022. "The Geographic Effects of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 22-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    16. Eriksson, Katherine & Russ, Katheryn N. & Shambaugh, Jay C. & Xu, Minfei, 2021. "Reprint: Trade shocks and the shifting landscape of U.S. manufacturing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Arthur M. Okun, 1973. "Upward Mobility in a High-Pressure Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 207-262.
    18. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    19. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2020. "A hitchhiker guide to empirical macro models," CEPR Discussion Papers 15446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Obstfeld, Maurice & Peri, Giovanni, 1998. "Regional Nonadjustment and Fiscal Policy: Lessons for EMU," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233615, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    21. Christopher R. Berry & Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The divergence of human capital levels across cities," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(3), pages 407-444, August.
    22. Thomas Hyclak & James Stewart, 1995. "Racial differences in the unemployment response to structural changes in local labor markets," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 29-42, June.
    23. Michael Amior & Alan Manning, 2018. "The Persistence of Local Joblessness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1942-1970, July.
    24. David H. Autor, 2019. "Work of the Past, Work of the Future," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 1-32, May.
    25. Narayana Rao Kocherlakota & Mr. Thomas Krueger, 1998. "Why Do Different Countries Use Different Currencies?," IMF Working Papers 1998/017, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Christopher R. Berry & Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The Divergence of Human Capital Levels Across Cities," NBER Working Papers 11617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Eriksson, Katherine & Russ, Katheryn N. & Shambaugh, Jay C. & Xu, Minfei, 2021. "Trade shocks and the shifting landscape of U.S. manufacturing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    28. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren, 2018. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility II: County-Level Estimates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1163-1228.
    29. Niki Dickerson Lockette & William E. Spriggs, 2016. "Wage Dynamics and Racial and Ethnic Occupational Segregation Among Less-Educated Men in Metropolitan Labor Markets," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 35-56, March.
    30. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    31. Cecile Gaubert & Patrick Kline & Damián Vergara & Danny Yagan, 2021. "Trends in US Spatial Inequality: Concentrating Affluence and a Democratization of Poverty," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 520-525, May.
    32. Note: For best results & the figures should be printed on a non-Postscript printer. Hoynes & H., "undated". "The Employment, Earnings, and Income of Less-Skilled Workers over the Business Cycle," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1199-99, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    33. Rebecca Diamond, 2016. "The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers' Diverging Location Choices by Skill: 1980-2000," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 479-524, March.
    34. Stephanie R. Aaronson & Mary C. Daly & William L. Wascher & David W. Wilcox, 2019. "Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 333-404.
    35. Ganong, Peter & Shoag, Daniel, 2017. "Why has regional income convergence in the U.S. declined?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 76-90.
    36. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Shoag, Daniel & Ballance, Joshua, 2016. "Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 333-347.
    37. Harry J. Holzer & Steven Raphael & Michael A. Stoll, 2006. "Employers in the Boom: How Did the Hiring of Less-Skilled Workers Change during the 1990s?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 283-299, May.
    38. Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani, 2017. "Regional Labor Market Adjustment in the United States: Trend and Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 243-257, May.
    39. Cecile Gaubert & Rebecca Diamond, 2022. "Spatial Sorting and Inequality," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 795-819, August.
    40. Christopher R. Berry & Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The Divergence of Human Capital Levels across Cities," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2091, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    41. Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 2000. "Demand Shifts, Population Adjustments, and Labor Market Outcomes during the 1980s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 20-54, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gelfer, Sacha, 2024. "Examining business cycles and optimal monetary policy in a regional DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabian Eckert & Sharat Ganapati & Conor Walsh, 2020. "Urban-Biased Growth: A Macroeconomic Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8705, CESifo.
    2. Benjamin Austin & Edward Glaeser & Lawrence Summers, 2018. "Jobs for the Heartland: Place-Based Policies in 21st-Century America," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 151-255.
    3. Ning Jia & Raven Molloy & Christopher Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2023. "The Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy Questions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 144-180, March.
    4. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2021. "Why is the rent so darn high? The role of growing demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Choi, Jung Hyun & Green, Richard K., 2022. "The heterogeneous effects of interactions between parent's education and MSA level college share on children's school enrollment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Arntz, Melanie & Brüll, Eduard & Lipowski, Cäcilia, 2021. "Do preferences for urban amenities really differ by skill?," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-045, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Redding, Stephen, 2020. "Trade and Geography," CEPR Discussion Papers 15268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Miriam Fritzsche, 2024. "De-industrialization, local joblessness and the male-female employment gap," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0040, Berlin School of Economics.
    9. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Jelle Barkema, 2019. "Stranded! How Rising Inequality Suppressed US Migration and Hurt Those Left Behind," IMF Working Papers 2019/122, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ben Armstrong, 2021. "Industrial Policy and Local Economic Transformation: Evidence From the U.S. Rust Belt," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(3), pages 181-196, August.
    11. Raoul van Maarseveen, 2021. "The urban–rural education gap: do cities indeed make us smarter? [Educational investment responses to economic opportunity: evidence from Indian road construction]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 683-714.
    12. Schran, Felix, 2019. "Locational Choice and Spatial Wage Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 12660, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. David H. Autor, 2019. "Work of the Past, Work of the Future," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 1-32, May.
    14. Ryan M. Gallagher & Joseph Persky, 2020. "Heterogeneity of birth‐state effects on internal migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 517-537, June.
    15. Mike Zabek, 2024. "Local Ties in Spatial Equilibrium," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 287-317, April.
    16. Maximilian v. Ehrlich & Henry G. Overman, 2020. "Place-Based Policies and Spatial Disparities across European Cities," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 128-149, Summer.
    17. Winters, John V., 2020. "Problem on the Plains: College Earnings Premiums in Small Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 51(1), December.
    18. Edward L. Glaeser & Naomi Hausman, 2019. "The Spatial Mismatch between Innovation and Joblessness," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 20, pages 233-299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Xu, Shang & Klaiber, Allen & Miteva, Daniela, 2018. "The Impact of Concessions on Household Location Choice and Well-Being in Indonesia," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274009, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Eliasson, Kent & Hansson, Pär & Lindvert, Markus, 2019. "Regional employment effects of MNE offshoring," Working Papers 2019:1, Örebro University, School of Business.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currencies; unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:96581. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.