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China’s monetary policy and the exchange rate

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  • Aaron Mehrotra
  • Jose R. Sanchez-Fung

Abstract

The paper models monetary policy in China using a hybrid McCallum-Taylor empirical reaction function. The feedback rule allows for reactions to inflation and output gaps, and to developments in a trade-weighted exchange rate gap measure. The investigation finds that monetary policy in China has, on average, accommodated inflationary developments. But exchange rate shocks do not significantly affect monetary policy behavior, and there is no evidence of a structural break in the estimated reaction function at the end of the strict dollar peg in July 2005. The paper also runs an exercise incorporating survey-based inflation expectations into the policy reaction function and meets with some success.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Mehrotra & Jose R. Sanchez-Fung, 2010. "China’s monetary policy and the exchange rate," Working Paper Series 2010-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2010-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meixing Dai, 2006. "Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 199-219.
    2. Aaron Mehrotra & José R Sánchez-Fung, 2010. "China's Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(4), pages 497-514, December.
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    1. Aaron Mehrotra & José R Sánchez-Fung, 2010. "China's Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(4), pages 497-514, December.
    2. Riikka Nuutilainen, 2015. "Contemporary Monetary Policy in China: An Empirical Assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 461-486, August.
    3. Yutaka Kurihara, 2012. "Exchange rate determination and structural changes in response to monetary policies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 187-196, July.
    4. Alistair Dieppe & Bjorn van Roye & Paolo. Bonomolo, 2017. "Re-assessing Monetary Policy Shocks in China," EcoMod2017 10524, EcoMod.
    5. Marjan Petreski & Branimir Jovanovic, 2013. "Monetary Policy in China: The Role of the Qualitative Instruments," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(3), pages 437-442, November.
    6. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Lixia Loh, 2013. "On China's monetary policy and asset prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 377-392, March.
    7. Bolesta, Andrzej, 2015. "Creating a Post-Socialist Developmental State: The Political Economy of China’s Transformation and Development," Studia z Polityki Publicznej / Public Policy Studies, Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2(4), pages 1-24, December.
    8. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Lixia Loh, 2011. "On China’s Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers 11/04, University of Nottingham, GEP.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy - China; Foreign exchange;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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