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Taylor Rule in Practice: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Nejla Adanur Aklan
  • Mehmet Nargelecekenler

Abstract

This paper estimates the backward-looking and forward-looking monetary policy reaction functions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) by considering the post-crisis period from August 2001 to September 2006, with a special emphasis on inflation targeting. Policies which the CBRT applied are analyzed according to the Taylor rule. The empirical results indicate that the CBRT followed the Taylor rule in its interest setting behaviour. In forward-looking models, the response coefficient of inflation and the output gap is greater than that of backward-looking models. The results of forward-looking models reflect, the policies conducted in Turkey. In the post-crisis period, expected inflation has been the main reaction variable for the CBRT. This suggests that monetary policy over the post-crisis period was not accommodating increases in expected inflation. The main conclusion is that ‘Taylor rule’ based monetary policies were effective in inflation targeting in Turkey. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Nejla Adanur Aklan & Mehmet Nargelecekenler, 2008. "Taylor Rule in Practice: Evidence from Turkey," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 156-166, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:156-166:10.1007/s11294-008-9148-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-008-9148-9
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    Cited by:

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    2. Imen Mohamed Sghaier & Zouheir Abida, 2013. "Monetary Policy Rules for a Developing Countries: Evidence from Tunisia," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 5(1), pages 035-046, June.
    3. Umit Bulut, 2019. "Does the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Respond Asymmetrically to Inflation and Output?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(4), pages 381-400, November.
    4. Civcir, Irfan & Akçaglayan, AnIl, 2010. "Inflation targeting and the exchange rate: Does it matter in Turkey?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 339-354, May.
    5. Tolga Dağlaroğlu & Baki Demirel & Syed F. Mahmud, 2018. "Monetary policy implications of short-term capital flows in Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 747-763, November.
    6. Imen Mohamed Sghaier, 2012. "Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy in Tunisia," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 143-166, December.
    7. Ümit BULUT, 2019. "The Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Turkey: Evidence from Fourier-Based Time Series Methods," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(2), pages 159-173, December.
    8. José Fajgenbaum & Harpaul Alberto Kohli, 2016. "Resilience Index: A 2016 Update," Papers Presented at Global Meetings of the Emerging Markets Forum 2016resilience, Emerging Markets Forum.
    9. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Time-varying parameters in monetary policy rules: a GMM approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(9), pages 148-176, January.
    10. ERDEM Ekrem & BULUT Umit & KOCAK Emrah, 2017. "Have Financial Stability Concerns Changed The Priority Of The Central Bank Of The Republic Of Turkey?," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 35-45, August.
    11. Yağcıbaşı Özge Filiz & Yıldırım Mustafa Ozan, 2017. "Welfare Implications of Alternative Monetary Policy Rules: A New Keynesian DSGE Model for Turkey," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(4), pages 363-379, December.
    12. Guo, Yingwen & Zhou Z.F., Sherry, 2011. "Duration Analysis of Interest Rate Spells : Cross-National Study of Interest Rate Policy," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 52(1), pages 1-11, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey; Inflation targeting; Taylor rule; Monetary policy; Reaction function; GMM; E40;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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