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Testing for bubbles in housing markets: new results using a new method

Author

Listed:
  • José E. Gómez-González
  • Jair N. Ojeda-Joya
  • Catalina Rey-Guerra
  • Natalia Sicard

Abstract

In the context of financial crises influenced by the development and burst of housing price bubbles, the detection of exuberant behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of vital importance. This paper applies the new method developed by Phillips et al (2012) for detecting bubbles in the Colombian residential property market. The empirical results suggest that currently the country could be experiencing a price bubble, when the CPI and the housing rent index are used as deflators. We do not check the robustness of these results to alternative deflators, such as a household income index and a land price index, due to the lack of monthly data on these indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • José E. Gómez-González & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Catalina Rey-Guerra & Natalia Sicard, 2013. "Testing for bubbles in housing markets: new results using a new method," Globalization Institute Working Papers 164, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:164
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    2. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    3. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
    4. Natalia Salazar & Roberto Steiner & Alejandro Becerra & Jaime Ramírez, 2013. "Los efectos del precio del suelo sobre el precio de la vivienda para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 31(70), pages 18-66, July.
    5. Yiu, Matthew S. & Yu, Jun & Jin, Lu, 2013. "Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 115-124.
    6. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    7. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
    8. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Milton Camelo Rincón & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2016. "Análisis de la política de vivienda en Bogotá: un enfoque desde la oferta y la demanda," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 8(1), pages 105-122, March.
    2. Gustavo Adolfo HERNANDEZ DIAZ & Gabriel PIRAQUIVE GALEANO, 2014. "Evolución de los precios de la vivienda en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 11208, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    3. Sergio Cerezo Aguirre, 2014. "Boom en el sector inmobiliario en Bolivia: ¿burbuja o fundamentos económicos?," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 20(1), pages 75-118, June.
    4. Vanessa Cediel Sánchez & Carlos Velásquez Vega, 2015. "¿Hay una burbuja inmobiliaria en Bogotá? Un estudio por segmentos de mercado," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 17(32), pages 233-357, January-J.
    5. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Juan P. Franco & Jhon E. Torres, 2017. "Asset Price Bubbles: Existence, Persistence and Migration," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 52-67, March.
    6. Juan Diego Lopez Rodriguez & Miguel D. Ramirez, 2016. "Are Controls Effective in Curbing Private Capital Flows in Colombia? A Time-Series Analysis," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 23-34.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing price bubbles; unit-root tests; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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