IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/siu/wpaper/31-2012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Detecting Bubbles in Hong Kong Residential Property Market

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew S. Yiu

    (ASEAN + 3 Macroeconomic Research Office)

  • Jun Yu

    (Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, School of Economics and Lee Kong Chian School of Business)

  • Lu Jin

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, the method finds a bubble in early 2011 in the overall market as well as in the mass segment but not in the luxury segment. This result suggests that the bubble in early 2011 in the Hong Kong real estate market came more strongly from the mass segment under the demand pressure from end‐users of small‐to‐medium sized apartments.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew S. Yiu & Jun Yu & Lu Jin, 2012. "Detecting Bubbles in Hong Kong Residential Property Market," Working Papers 31-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:31-2012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mercury.smu.edu.sg/rsrchpubupload/20850/31_2012_Detecting_Bubbles_in_Hong_Kong_Residential.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Montrucchio, Luigi & Privileggi, Fabio, 2001. "On Fragility of Bubbles in Equilibrium Asset Pricing Models of Lucas-Type," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 158-188, November.
    2. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2012. "The dynamics of housing returns in Singapore: How important are the international transmission mechanisms?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 516-530.
    3. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers CoFie-03-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mr. R. S Craig & Mr. Changchun Hua, 2011. "Determinants of Property Prices in Hong Kong SAR: Implications for Policy," IMF Working Papers 2011/277, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
    10. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
    11. Mr. Christoph Duenwald, 2000. "Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles: Evidence From Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 2000/002, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
    13. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    14. Chan Lily & Ng Heng Tiong & Rishi Ramchand, 2012. "A cluster analysis approach to examining Singapore’s property market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 43-53, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Mr. Ashvin Ahuja & Lillian Cheung & Gaofeng Han & Mr. Nathan Porter & Wenlang Zhang, 2010. "Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?," IMF Working Papers 2010/274, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Asset price fluctuations in Taiwan: evidence from stock and real estate prices 1973 to 1992," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 215-232.
    17. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
    18. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
    19. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Are House Prices Rising too Fast in Hong Kong SAR?," IMF Working Papers 2010/273, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Mr. Malhar S Nabar & Mr. Ashvin Ahuja, 2011. "Safeguarding Banks and Containing Property Booms: Cross-Country Evidenceon Macroprudential Policies and Lessons From Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 2011/284, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
    22. Qin Xiao & Yunhua Liu, 2010. "The residential market of Hong Kong: rational or irrational?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 923-933.
    23. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    24. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Determinants of house prices in nine Asia-Pacific economies," BIS Working Papers 263, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemčík, 2009. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 366-386, May.
    26. Frank Leung & Kevin Chow & Gaofeng Han, 2008. "Long-term and Short-term Determinants of Property Prices in Hong Kong," Working Papers 0815, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthew S. Yiu & Lu Jin, 2012. "Detecting Bubbles in the Hong Kong Residential Property Market: An Explosive-Pattern Approach," Working Papers 012012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    3. Tie-Ying Liu & Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Zhao Jiang, 2016. "China's housing bubble burst?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(2), pages 361-389, April.
    4. Wei Long & Dingding Li & Qi Li, 2016. "Testing explosive behavior in the gold market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1151-1164, November.
    5. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2017. "When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-6.
    6. Zhao, Yanping & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Nian, Rui, 2015. "Gold bubbles: When are they most likely to occur?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 17-23.
    7. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Crossman, 2014. "Episodes of exuberance in housing markets," Working Papers 64908732, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    8. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2018. "Will the energy price bubble burst?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 276-288.
    9. Leone, Vitor & de Medeiros, Otavio Ribeiro, 2015. "Signalling the Dotcom bubble: A multiple changes in persistence approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 77-86.
    10. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Juan P. Franco & Jhon E. Torres, 2017. "Asset Price Bubbles: Existence, Persistence and Migration," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 52-67, March.
    12. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    13. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2016. "Non-linearities in financial bubbles: Theory and Bayesian evidence from S&P500," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 61-70.
    14. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J. & Monfort, A., 2020. "Stationary bubble equilibria in rational expectation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 714-735.
    15. Knight, John & Satchell, Stephen & Srivastava, Nandini, 2014. "Steady state distributions for models of locally explosive regimes: Existence and econometric implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 281-288.
    16. Rafiq Ahmed & Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Samina Khalil, 2021. "Bubble Detection in Housing Market: Evidence From a Developing Country," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    17. John Knight & Stephen Satchell & Nandini Srivastava, 2012. "Steady-State Distributions for Models of Bubbles: their Existence and Econometric Implications," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1208, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    18. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2015. "Are there periodically collapsing bubbles in the REIT markets? New evidence from the US," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 17-31.
    19. Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie, 2020. "Explosive dynamics in house prices? An exploration of financial market spillovers in housing markets around the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    20. Yuchao Fan, 2022. "Dissecting the dot-com bubble in the 1990s NASDAQ," Papers 2206.14130, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset bubble; residential property prices; right‐tailed unit root test; explosive behaviour; price‐to‐rent ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:31-2012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: QL THor (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sesmusg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.