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¿Hay una burbuja inmobiliaria en Bogotá? Un estudio por segmentos de mercado

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  • Vanessa Cediel Sánchez
  • Carlos Velásquez Vega

Abstract

En 2014 los precios de la vivienda en Bogotá superaron el promedio histórico y el nivel más alto hasta ahora registrado, lo que hace pensar en una burbuja inmobiliaria. En este artículo se hace una prueba estadística, la prueba de detección temprana de burbujas, que identifica crecimientos explosivos de las series de precios por metro cuadrado. Se detectaron crecimientos exuberantes en la mayoría de las zonas, y se constató que hay diferencias por grupos de zonas. En las más costosas, parte del aumento de precios obedece a la acción de los especuladores; en las de menor valor, los precios obedecen a presiones de demanda y a mejoras en la capacidad de pago, así como a la ayuda del gobierno reflejada en la reducción de las tasas de interés hipotecarias para estos segmentos de la población.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanessa Cediel Sánchez & Carlos Velásquez Vega, 2015. "¿Hay una burbuja inmobiliaria en Bogotá? Un estudio por segmentos de mercado," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 17(32), pages 233-357, January-J.
  • Handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:17:y:2015:i:32:p:233-257
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    File URL: http://www.uexternado.edu.co/facecono/ecoinstitucional/workingpapers/vcediel32.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marc Hofstetter & Jorge Tovar & Miguel Urrutia, 2011. "Effects of a Mortgage Interest Rate Subsidy: Evidence from Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 008749, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    2. Marc Hofstetter & Jorge Tovar & Miguel Urrutia, 2011. "Effects of a Mortgage Interest Rate Subsidy: Evidence from Colombia," Documentos CEDE 8749, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. José E. Gómez-González & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Catalina Rey-Guerra & Natalia Sicard, 2013. "Testing for bubbles in housing markets: new results using a new method," Globalization Institute Working Papers 164, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Sergio Clavijo & Michel Janna & Santiago Muñoz, 2004. "LA VIVIENDA EN COLOMBIA: Sus Determinantes Socio-Económicos y Financieros," Borradores de Economia 3099, Banco de la Republica.
    5. J. Rosser & Marina Rosser & Mauro Gallegati, 2012. "A Minsky-Kindleberger Perspective on the Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 449-458.
    6. Gustavo Adolfo HERNANDEZ DIAZ & Gabriel PIRAQUIVE GALEANO, 2014. "Evolución de los precios de la vivienda en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 11208, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mauricio Alejandro Oyarzo Aguilar & Dusan Paredes Araya, 2017. "The impact of mining patents on public education: evidence for mining municipalities in Chile," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 72, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    burbujas inmobiliarias; Bogotá; prueba de raíz unitaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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