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Boom en el sector inmobiliario en Bolivia: ¿burbuja o fundamentos económicos?

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Cerezo Aguirre

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

En los últimos años Bolivia ha experimentado un boom en el sector inmobiliario surgiendo la interrogante sobre si este fenómeno responde a fundamentos de la economía o si se trata de una burbuja especulativa. En ese sentido, el objetivo de esta investigación es testear la hipótesis de la existencia de este fenómeno en el mercado inmobiliario de Bolivia y de sus tres principales ciudades capitales (La Paz, Cochabamba y Santa Cruz) para el periodo 2009-2012, para lo cual bajo algunos supuestos se estima el precio de las viviendas. Para testear la hipótesis se sigue dos metodologías reconocidas en la literatura sobre el tema: el análisis de cointegración y el método de Levin y Wright (1997a y 1997b) para estimar la importancia del componente especulativo en el precio de las viviendas. El análisis de cointegración proporciona argumentos para no apoyar la presencia de una burbuja, es decir, se probó que la evolución de largo plazo del precio real de las viviendas ha estado en torno a su equilibrio, el cual está determinado por variables fundamentales (PIB real per cápita, tasa de interés real promedio de créditos hipotecarios y costos de construcción). La segunda metodología que mide la especulación a partir de indicadores que emplean el crecimiento histórico del precio de las viviendas, muestra que no hay suficiente evidencia para aseverar la gestación de una burbuja inmobiliaria ya que las variables fundamentales del precio de las viviendas han tenido mayor implicancia que las medidas propuestas para capturar la especulación, las cuales incluso en la mayoría de los modelos resultaron ser estadísticamente no significativas.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Cerezo Aguirre, 2014. "Boom en el sector inmobiliario en Bolivia: ¿burbuja o fundamentos económicos?," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 20(1), pages 75-118, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:20:y:2013:i:1:p:75-118
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron & Lennon S., Joaquín, 2013. "Una Aplicación de Métodos de Detección de Burbuja Inmobiliaria: Caso Chile [Methods for Detection Housing Bubble: Evidence from Chile]," MPRA Paper 44741, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Mar 2013.
    2. Levin, Eric J. & Wright, Robert E., 1997. "The impact of speculation on house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 567-585, October.
    3. José Eduardo Gómez G. & Jair Ojeda Joya & Catalina Rey Guerra & Natalia Sicard, 2013. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: New Results Using a New Method," Borradores de Economia 753, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mercado de vivienda; modelos de series de tiempo; especulación;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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