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Idade, incapacidade e a inflação do número de pessoas com deficiência

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  • Neri, Marcelo Côrtes
  • Soares, Wagner Lopes

Abstract

Estudamos a evolução do número das pessoas com deficiência, através da consolidação e condensação de um vasto acervo de informações que abordam essa questão: Inquéritos de 1972 e de 1900, Censos de 1920 e 1940; microdados dos suplementos de saúde da Pesquisa Nacional de Amostras de Domicílios (PNAD/IBGE) de 1981 e 1998; da Pesquisa de Condições de Vida (PCV/Seade); e os microdados censitários de 1991 e 2000. O Censo Demográfico de 2000 informa que 24,5 milhões de brasileiros são portadores de deficiência no país, 14,5% da população, número bastante superior aos levantamentos anteriores: menos de 2%. Isto não ocorre porque tenha aumentado a incidência de deficiências, mas pela mudança dos instrumentos de coleta de dados seguindo as últimas recomendações da OMS, incorporando ao universo das deficiências os indivíduos com 'alguma ou grande dificuldade de andar, ouvir ou enxergar'. Tal inovação permite realizar um diagnóstico diferenciado de acordo com o grau de deficiência. A fim de entender a evolução temporal das estatísticas a respeito da incidência de deficiências no Brasil, propomos a separação no grupo de deficientes em geral do grupo com maior gravidade das deficiências reportadas, aqui convencionadas como pessoas com incapacidade (PPIs). Três metodologias distintas (análises bivariadas, regressões logísticas e análise de correspondência) apontam a questão etária como principal determinante para o advento das deficiências em geral. O impacto da idade se apresenta menor no caso das incapacidades. Concluímos que o Censo Demográfico de 2000 ao incorporar no universo das deficiências aquelas do tipo 'alguma ou grande dificuldade' acabou por classificar grande parte da população idosa com tal, o que sugere a aplicação de políticas distintas para esses dois grupos populacionais. Dada a transição demográfica ora em curso, projeções populacionais indicam que até 2025, mantidas as taxas de deficiência e incapacidades por faixa etária, a taxas agregadas devem atingir 18,6% e 3,01%, respectivamente, crescendo 30,6% e 19,3% em relação a 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Neri, Marcelo Côrtes & Soares, Wagner Lopes, 2003. "Idade, incapacidade e a inflação do número de pessoas com deficiência," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 490, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:490
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Becker, Gary S., 1971. "The Economics of Discrimination," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 2, number 9780226041162, January.
    2. Elwan, Ann, 1999. "Poverty and disability : a survey of the literature," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 21315, The World Bank.
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    2. Cavalcanti Ferreira, Pedro & Facchini, Giovanni, 2005. "Trade liberalization and industrial concentration: Evidence from Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 432-446, May.
    3. Monteiro, Paulo Klinger, 2006. "The set of equilibria of first-price auctions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 364-372, June.

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