IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fgv/eesptd/211.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange rate policies, patterns of specialization and economic development: theory and evidence in developing countries

Author

Listed:
  • Gala, Paulo
  • Libânio, Gilberto

Abstract

The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it intends to provide theoretical elements to analyze the relation between real exchange rates and economic development. Our main hypothesis is very much in line with the Dutch disease literature, and states that competitive currencies contribute to the existence and maintenance of the anufacturing sector in the economy. This, in turn, brings about higher growth rates in the long run, given the existence of increasing returns in the industrial sector, and its importance in generating echnological change and increasing productivity in the overall economy. The second objective of this paper is empirical. It intends to analyze examples of successful exchange rate policies, such as Chile and Indonesia in the eighties, as a benchmark for comparison with countries where currency overvaluation has taken place, such as Brazil. In the latter case, the local currency is being inflated by large capital inflows, due to high domestic interest rates and to a boom in demand and prices of commodities in the international markets. It will be argued that the industrial sector bears most of the burden when the currency appreciates, and that Brazil risks at deindustrialization if there are no changes in the exchange rate regime

Suggested Citation

  • Gala, Paulo & Libânio, Gilberto, 2010. "Exchange rate policies, patterns of specialization and economic development: theory and evidence in developing countries," Textos para discussão 211, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:211
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/185fc46e-a0ff-4019-a4f0-73b1edc55613/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 1, pages 001-022, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. John McCombie & Maurizio Pugno & Bruno Soro (ed.), 2002. "Productivity Growth and Economic Performance," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-50423-3, March.
    3. Roberto Frenkel & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy and Employment," Working Papers 19, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    4. Erling Røed Larsen, 2004. "Escaping the Resource Curse and the Dutch Disease? When and Why Norway Caught up with and Forged ahead of Its Neighbors," Discussion Papers 377, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. A. P. Thirlwall, 2015. "A Model of Regional Growth Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines," Palgrave Studies in the History of Economic Thought, in: Essays on Keynesian and Kaldorian Economics, chapter 12, pages 286-301, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    7. Penélope López & A. Thirlwall, 2006. "Trade liberalization, the income elasticity of demand for imports, and growth in Latin America," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 41-61.
    8. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2004. "Exchange rate: fix, float, or manage it?," Textos para discussão 135, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    9. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, 2002. "Brazil's Quasi-Stagnation and the Growth cum Foreign Savings Strategy," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 76-102.
    10. John Williamson, 1996. "Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime: Lessons from Chile, Colombia and Israel, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 14, April.
    11. Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo, 2002. "El impacto de las exportaciones sobre el crecimiento en Chile," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    12. Lopez, Ramon & Thomas, Vinod, 1988. "Imports and growth in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 20, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Sugestão de resenha: Gala, Libanio e a doença dos holandeses
      by "O" Anonimo in A Mão Visível on 2010-07-13 20:00:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ribeiro, Rafael S.M. & McCombie, John S.L. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2020. "Does real exchange rate undervaluation really promote economic growth?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 408-417.
    2. Nepal, Rabindra & Yadav, Miklesh Prasad & Katoch, Rupinder & Gupta, Himani & Kumar, Atul, 2024. "Co-movement between carbon emissions and forex market: A tale of COVID-19 outbreak and Russia-Ukraine invasion," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Ramos-Herrera María del Carmen, 2022. "How Equilibrium Exchange Rate Misalignments Influence on Economic Growth? Evidence for European Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 199-211, January.
    4. Muhammad Riyadh Ghozali Lubis & Noor Al-Huda Abdul Karim & Gan Pei Tha & Norimah Rambeli & Ramli, 2017. "Exchange Rate Effect on Gross Domestic Product in the Five Founding Members of ASEAN," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 7(11), pages 1284-1293, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Santini, Theo & de Acypreste, Rafael, 2023. "A vertically integrated approach to increasing returns and cumulative causation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 49-58.
    2. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Teixeira, Joanilio Rodolpho, 2021. "An appraisal of neo-Kaldorian theories from a structural economic dynamics perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 247-255.
    4. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil & Oreiro, José, 2021. "A song of ice and fire: Competitiveness in an export-led growing economy," MPRA Paper 109821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    6. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Trigg, Andrew B., 2015. "A neo-Kaldorian approach to structural economic dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 25-36.
    7. Fabrício Misso & Ricardo Araújo Azevedo & Frederico Jayme Jr, 2013. "An extended structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments constrained growth: level of the real exchange rate and endogenous elasticities," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 499, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    8. Guilherme R. Magacho & John S. L. McCombie, 2020. "Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 633-660, July.
    9. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile, 2014. "Technology, structural change and BOP-constrained growth: a structuralist toolbox," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(1), pages 215-237.
    10. Sebastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2022. "The slowing of growth in France: an interpretation based on Thirlwall’s law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 100-129, January.
    11. Deepankar Basu1, Duncan K. Foley, 2011. "WP 2011-4 Dynamics of Output and Employment in the U.S. Economy," SCEPA working paper series. 2011-4, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    12. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo, 2013. "Cumulative causation in a structural economic dynamic approach to economic growth and uneven development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 130-140.
    13. Cimoli, Mario & Porcile, Gabriel, 2011. "Tecnologia, heterogeneidad y crecimiento: una caja de herramientas estructuralista [Technology, heterogeneity and Growth: A Structuralist Toolbox]," MPRA Paper 33801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Marcos Rocha & Paulo Gala, 2011. "Câmbio real, poupança doméstica e poupança externa: análise teórica e evidências empíricas [Real exchange rate, domestic savings and external savings: theoretical analysis and empirical evidence]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 21(3), pages 351-367, September.
    15. Gustavo Britto & João Prates Romero, 2011. "Modelos kaldorianos de crescimento e suas extensões contemporâneas," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 449, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, revised Jul 2013.
    16. Deepankar Basu & Duncan K. Foley, 2013. "Dynamics of output and employment in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(5), pages 1077-1106.
    17. Mark Setterfield (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12814.
    18. Jinzhao Chen, 2015. "Interprovincial Competitiveness and Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Data (1992–2008)," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 388-414, August.
    19. Soro, Bruno, 2012. "Harrod, Kaldor, and the Idea of the "Foreign Trade Multiplier” - Harrod, Kaldor e l’idea dell’esistenza di un “moltiplicatore del commercio estero”," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 65(1), pages 173-187.
    20. Fabrício J. Missio & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Gustavo Britto & José Luis Oreiro, 2015. "Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 686-714, November.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eegvfbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.