IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fgv/eesptd/118.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic growth with foreign saving?

Author

Listed:
  • Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos
  • Nakano, Yoshiaki

Abstract

Highly indebted countries, particularly the Latin American ones, presented dismal economic outcomes in the 1990s, which are the consequence of the ‘growth cum foreign savings strategy’, or the Second Washington Consensus. Coupled with liberalization of international financial flows, such strategy, which did not make part of the first consensus, led the countries, in the wave of a new world wide capital flow cycle, to high current account deficits and increase in foreign debt, ignoring the solvency constraint and the debt threshold. In practical terms it involved overvalued currencies (low exchange rates) and high interest rates; in policy terms, the attempt to control de budget deficit while the current account deficit was ignored. The paradoxical consequence was the adoption by highly indebted countries of ‘exchange rate populism’, a less obvious but more dangerous form of economic populism.

Suggested Citation

  • Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Nakano, Yoshiaki, 2002. "Economic growth with foreign saving?," Textos para discussão 118, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:118
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/9f506857-e3db-4396-a9a9-d1058c936b35/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Alejandro Lopez Mejia, 1999. "Large Capital Flows: A Survey of the Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 1999/017, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Latin America and Foreign Capital in the Twentieth Century: Economics, Politics, and Institutional Change," NBER Working Papers 7394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 47-100, January.
    4. Barro, Robert J & Mankiw, N Gregory & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 103-115, March.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    8. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Low Investment and Large LDC Debt in the 1980's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 437-449, June.
    9. Sinn, Stefan, 1992. "Saving-Investment Correlations and Capital Mobility: On the Evidence from Annual Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1162-1170, September.
    10. Carlos Arteta & Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More than It Hurts?," NBER Working Papers 8414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    12. Bhaduri, Amit, 1987. "Dependent and Self-reliant Growth with Foreign Borrowing," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 11(3), pages 269-273, September.
    13. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Growth and external debt," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9302, CEPREMAP.
    14. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Social Conflict and Populist Policies in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 2897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-627, May.
    16. Bhaduri, Amit & Skarstein, Rune, 1996. "Short-Period Macroeconomic Aspects of Foreign Aid," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 20(2), pages 195-206, March.
    17. Easterly, William, 2001. "The Lost Decades: Developing Countries' Stagnation in Spite of Policy Reform 1980-1998," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 135-157, June.
    18. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s," MPRA Paper 8196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2008. "The new developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy," Textos para discussão 156, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    2. Luiz Bresser-Pereira & Paulo Gala, 2009. "Why Foreign Savings Fail to Cause Growth," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 58-76.
    3. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2008. "National development strategy: the key growth institution," Textos para discussão 161, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    4. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Fernando Rugitsky, 2018. "Industrial policy and exchange rate scepticism [Open economy models of distribution and growth]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(3), pages 617-632.
    5. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Paulo Gala, 2008. "Foreign savings, insufficiency of demand, and low growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 315-334, April.
    6. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, 2010. "The global financial crisis and a new capitalism?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 499-534, July.
    7. Edwin Le Heron, 2003. "A new consensus on monetary policy?," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 23(4), pages 505-530.
    8. Eric BERR, 2008. "Which development for the 21st century? Reflections on sustainable development\r\n (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2008-04, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    9. Nola Reinhardt, "undated". "Saving Rates in Latin American: Why Reformers Got It Wrong," Working Papers 2007-01, Smith College, Department of Economics.
    10. Eric Berr & François Combarnous, 2004. "L'impact du consensus de Washington sur les pays en développement : une évaluation empirique," Documents de travail 100, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    11. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2009. "From old to new developmentalism in Latin America," Textos para discussão 193, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    12. Benczes, István & Szabó, Krisztina, 2023. "Társadalmi törésvonalak és gazdasági (ir)racionalitások. A közgazdaságtan szerepe és helye a populizmus kutatásában [Social cleavages and economic (ir)rationalities: The role of economics in populi," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 23-54.
    13. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2004. "Exchange rate: fix, float, or manage it?," Textos para discussão 135, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    14. Andrés Rius & Carolina Román, 2021. "Countries in the hamster’s wheel?: Nurkse- Duesenberry demonstration effects and the determinants of saving," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 40(82), pages 193-225, February.
    15. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2010. "The global financial crisis, neoclassical economics, and the neoliberal years of capitalism," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 7.
    16. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2009. "The global financial crisis and after: a new capitalism?," Textos para discussão 240, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    17. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Gala, Paulo, 2005. "Crítica do crescimento com poupança externa," Textos para discussão 145, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    18. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Feijó, Carmem & Araújo, Eliane Cristina de, 2022. "The determination of the exchange rate: a new-developmental approach," Textos para discussão 558, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    19. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2016. "Why the ‘Rest’ doesn’t need foreign finance," Textos para discussão 415, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    20. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2017. "The economics and the political economy of new-developmentalism," Textos para discussão 464, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    21. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Feijó, Carmem & Araújo, Eliane Cristina de, 2021. "Do liberal policy regimes condemn Latin America to quasi-stagnation?," Textos para discussão 541, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luiz Bresser-Pereira & Paulo Gala, 2009. "Why Foreign Savings Fail to Cause Growth," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 58-76.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Pereira, Alfredo, 1996. "The debt crisis: lessons of the 1980s for the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-24, June.
    3. Rustam Jamilov, 2013. "J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall–Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 313-323, February.
    4. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Paulo Gala, 2008. "Foreign savings, insufficiency of demand, and low growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 315-334, April.
    5. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    6. Margarita Katsimi & Thomas Moutos, 2009. "A Note On Human Capital And The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(3), pages 398-409, June.
    7. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Gala, Paulo, 2005. "Crítica do crescimento com poupança externa," Textos para discussão 145, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    8. Julian Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises? Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom- Bust Cycles," Research Department Publications 4775, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    9. Iamsiraroj, Sasi, 2016. "The foreign direct investment–economic growth nexus," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 116-133.
    10. Jean-Pierre Allegret, 2000. "Quel role pour les controles des mouvements internationaux de capitaux ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 81, pages 77-108.
    11. Chakrabarti, Avik, 2006. "The saving-investment relationship revisited: New evidence from multivariate heterogeneous panel cointegration analyses," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 402-419, June.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld, 1993. "International Capital Mobility in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 4534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jamilov, Rustam, 2012. "Capital mobility in the Caucasus," MPRA Paper 38184, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2012.
    15. Eugenio Diaz Bonilla & Hector E. Schamis, 1999. "La economía política de las políticas de cambio en Argentina," Research Department Publications 3079, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    16. Gundlach, Erich, 1996. "Solow meets market socialism: regional convergence of output per worker in China," Kiel Working Papers 726, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Gundlach, Erich, 1997. "Regional convergence of output per worker in China: A neoclassical interpretation," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1765, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2012. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?," Research Department Publications 4782, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    19. Bartolini, Leonardo & Drazen, Allan, 1997. "When liberal policies reflect external shocks, what do we learn?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 249-273, May.
    20. Jesús Rodríguez‐López & Diego Martínez‐López & Diego Romero‐Ávila, 2009. "Persistence of inequalities across the Spanish regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(4), pages 841-862, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eegvfbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.