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Two-ballot versus plurality rule: an empirical investigation on the number of candidates

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Gonçalves
  • Ricardo Madeira
  • Mauro Rodrigues

Abstract

Duverger claimed more than 50 years ago that the number of candidates in elections should be a function of electoral rules. Both his ?law?and ?hypothesis?suggest the number of candidates vying for seats in elections to be tightly linked to characteristics of the elec- toral process such as its degree of proportionality and the presence of runo¤s. Here we test the validity of Duverger?s claim using data from municipal elections in Brazil. Our study di¤ers from others in the ?eld in two important dimensions. First, by using municipal data we avoid the usual problems that plague statistical analysis using cross-country data. Sec- ondly, we have a truly exogenous source of variation due to a change in electoral legislation introduced by the constitutional reform of 1988: simple plurality remained the rule only in municipalities with less than 200,000 voters, and a second-ballot became mandatory for the others above that threshold. This allows for a neat identi?cation strategy using panel data. Our main ?nding is that elections with runo¤s lure greater numbers of candidates in municipalities with su¢ ciently high levels of heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Gonçalves & Ricardo Madeira & Mauro Rodrigues, 2008. "Two-ballot versus plurality rule: an empirical investigation on the number of candidates," Working Papers 09_10, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto.
    • Handle: RePEc:fea:wpaper:09_10
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    File URL: ftp://cpq.fearp.usp.br:2300/textos_discussao/eco/wpe09_10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Riker, William H., 1982. "The Two-party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 753-766, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Torres, Javier & Díaz, Guillermo, 2019. "Effects of runoff voting rules on number of parties and candidates' political experience: Evidence from a law change in Peru," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 97-107.
    2. Shin, Euncheol, 2019. "A model of pre-electoral coalition formation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 463-485.
    3. Laurent Bouton, 2013. "A Theory of Strategic Voting in Runoff Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1248-1288, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Duverger's Law; Runoff; Heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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