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Turkey and the European Union: possible incidence of the EU accession on migration flows

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Abstract

This paper analyzes possible incidences of Turkish EU accession on the emigration from Turkey to the European Union. Panel data estimators are applied on the emigration data from EU-18 into Germany in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Eventual migration flows from Turkey into the EU are forecasted based on the estimated results. We find that seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator that can be applied in Turkey-EU migration framework. Our results reveal that both the network effect and target country labour market conditions represent the strongest determinants for migration, whilst the effect of per capita income is actually relatively low. In particular, Turkish per capita income does not have nearly any effect on migration, because it enters the model in two variables that work against each other. Furthermore, a very low importance of opening the German labour market for Turkish migrants is found. Estimated coefficients are used to predict migrations to Germany and through appropriate extrapolations to the whole European Union (EU). Three scenarios of migration are created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail.

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  • Ondřej Glazar & Wadim Strielkowski, 2009. "Turkey and the European Union: possible incidence of the EU accession on migration flows," Working Papers IES 2009/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2009_15
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    1. Selin Sayek & David D. Selover, 2002. "International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 206-238, October.
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    1. Meltem İNCE YENİLMEZ, 2017. "What Determines Labour Movement from Turkey to Europe? Extent of the Situation and Implications," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(31).
    2. repec:mje:mjejnl:v:12:y:2017:i:3:p:31-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Robert Stojanov & Wadim Strielkowski, 2013. "The Role of Remittances as More Efficient Tool of Development Aid in Developing Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(4), pages 487-503.
    4. Aurelija Puraite & Saulius Greichius & Danguole Seniutiene, 2017. "Managing State Border in the Context of Migration Crisis in Europe - Lithuanian Case," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 13(3), pages 31-42.
    5. Milan Palat, 2014. "Integration prospects of Turkey into European Structures and Turkish Immigration to Germany," Border Crossing, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 2014(1403), pages 32-40, October.
    6. Wadim Strielkowski & Lenka Šperková & Brozyna Jacek, 2017. "Migration and Remittances Nexus: Economic Implications and Analysis," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 772-772, August.
    7. Wadim Strielkowski & Petr Filipec & Miroslav Štefánik & Karolina Kowalska, 2013. "Outward Labour Migration in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia after the EU Enlargement in 2004," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 042-054, March.
    8. Milan Palat, 2014. "Integration prospects of Turkey into European Structures and Turkish Immigration to Germany," Border Crossing, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 4(1-2), pages 32-40, January-J.
    9. Karolina Kowalska & Wadim Strielkowski, 2013. "Propensity to Migration in the CEEC: Comparison of Migration Potential in the Czech Republic and Poland," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(3), pages 343-357.
    10. Mihaela Simionescu & Yuriy Bilan & Grzegorz Mentel, 2017. "Economic Effects of Migration from Poland to the UK," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 757-757, August.
    11. Radman Peša, Anita & Brajković, Ana, 2015. "Testing The ‘Black Swan Effect’ on Croatian Stock Market Between 2000 and 2013," MPRA Paper 69223, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    12. Anita Radman Peša & Mejra Festić, 2012. "Testing the "EU Announcement Effect" on Stock Market Indices and Macroeconomic Variables in Croatia Between 2000 and 2010," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(4), pages 450-469.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economy of migration; Turkey; EU Enlargement; panel data; seemingly unrelated regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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