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Detecting Propagation Effects by Observing Aggregate Distributions: The Case of Lumpy Investments

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  • Luigi Guiso
  • Chaoqun Lai
  • Makoto Nirei

Abstract

By using an extensive panel data set of Italian firms, we show empirically that the fraction of firms that engage in a lumpy investment follows a non-normal, double-exponential distribution across region-year. We propose a simple sectoral model that generates the double-exponential distribution that arises from the complementarity of the firms' lumpy investments within a region. We calibrate the degree of complementarity by estimating an individual firm's behavior with the firm-level data. Simulations show that the degree of complementarity estimated at the firm level is consistent with the double-exponential fluctuations observed at the aggregate level.

Suggested Citation

  • Luigi Guiso & Chaoqun Lai & Makoto Nirei, 2011. "Detecting Propagation Effects by Observing Aggregate Distributions: The Case of Lumpy Investments," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/25, European University Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2011/25
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    Cited by:

    1. D'Elia, Enrico & Nascia, Leopoldo & Zeli, Alessandro, 2011. "Analisi dei modelli d’impresa: discontinuità e sviluppo [Analysing firm's evolution: discontinuity and growth]," MPRA Paper 35926, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Luigi Guiso & Chaoqun Lai & Makoto Nirei, 2017. "An Empirical Study of Interaction-Based Aggregate Investment Fluctuations," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 137-157, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interaction models; strategic complementarity; propagation effect; non-Gaussian uctuations; double-exponential distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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