IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bge/wpaper/1312.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Macroeconomics of Irreversibility

Author

Listed:
  • Andrés Blanco
  • Isaac Baley

Abstract

We study aggregate capital dynamics in an investment model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks, fixed capital adjustment costs, and irreversibility driven by a wedge between capital purchase and resale prices. We derive sufficient statistics capturing the role of investment frictions on aggregate capital fluctuations, measure these statistics with investment microdata, and exploit them to discipline the capital price wedge. Irreversibility doubles the persistence of capital fluctuations and is crucial for reconciling micro-level investment behavior with macroeconomic propagation.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Blanco & Isaac Baley, 2022. "The Macroeconomics of Irreversibility," Working Papers 1312, Barcelona School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1312
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bw.bse.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/1312.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. François Gourio & Jianjun Miao, 2010. "Firm Heterogeneity and the Long-Run Effects of Dividend Tax Reform," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 131-168, January.
    2. Andrea Lanteri, 2018. "The Market for Used Capital: Endogenous Irreversibility and Reallocation over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2383-2419, September.
    3. R?diger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2014. "Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1392-1416, April.
    4. Paul Milgrom & Ilya Segal, 2002. "Envelope Theorems for Arbitrary Choice Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 583-601, March.
    5. Julia K. Thomas, 2002. "Is Lumpy Investment Relevant for the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 508-534, June.
    6. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2011. "Menu Costs, Multiproduct Firms, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1139-1180, July.
    7. Saki Bigio, 2015. "Endogenous Liquidity and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1883-1927, June.
    8. Hassett, Kevin A. & Hubbard, R. Glenn, 2002. "Tax policy and business investment," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 20, pages 1293-1343, Elsevier.
    9. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2013. "Misallocation and productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, January.
    10. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    11. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1993. "Microeconomic Adjustment Hazards and Aggregate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(2), pages 359-383.
    12. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2022. "The Analytic Theory of a Monetary Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1655-1680, July.
    13. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2010. "Monetary Non-neutrality in a Multisector Menu Cost Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 961-1013.
    14. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2014. "Price Setting With Menu Cost for Multiproduct Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 89-135, January.
    15. Fabio Verona, 2014. "Investment Dynamics with Information Costs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1627-1656, December.
    16. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2019. "Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 276-337, January.
    17. Andrea Lanteri & Pamela Medina & Eugene Tan, 2023. "Capital-Reallocation Frictions and Trade Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 190-228, April.
    18. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    19. Andrew S. Caplin & Daniel F. Spulber, 1987. "Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 703-725.
    20. Marcus Asplund, 2000. "What Fraction of a Capital Investment is Sunk Costs?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 287-304, September.
    21. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2014. "Lumpy Investment and Corporate Tax Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1171-1203, September.
    22. R?diger Bachmann & Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 2013. "Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 29-67, October.
    23. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Aleksei Oskolkov, 2022. "The Macroeconomics of Sticky Prices with Generalized Hazard Functions [“Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market With Information Costs and Transactions Costs,”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 137(2), pages 989-1038.
    24. Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2010. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(4), pages 581-593.
    26. Altug, Sumru & Demers, Fanny S. & Demers, Michel, 2009. "The investment tax credit and irreversible investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 509-522, December.
    27. Alan J. Auerbach & James R. Hines Jr., 1986. "Tax Reform, Investment, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Gourio, Francois & Kashyap, Anil K, 2007. "Investment spikes: New facts and a general equilibrium exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 1-22, September.
    29. Avinash Dixit, 1991. "Analytical Approximations in Models of Hysteresis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 141-151.
    30. Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2001. "Displaced Capital: A Study of Aerospace Plant Closings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 958-992, October.
    31. Marcelo L. Veracierto, 2002. "Plant-Level Irreversible Investment and Equilibrium Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 181-197, March.
    32. Thomas Winberry, 2021. "Lumpy Investment, Business Cycles, and Stimulus Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 364-396, January.
    33. Woodford, Michael, 2009. "Information-constrained state-dependent pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 100-124.
    34. Mervyn A. King & Don Fullerton, 1984. "The United Kingdom," NBER Chapters, in: The Taxation of Income from Capital: A Comparative Study of the United States, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Germany, pages 31-86, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    36. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    37. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 395-436, March.
    38. Mihir A. Desai & William M. Gentry, 2004. "The Character and Determinants of Corporate Capital Gains," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 18, pages 1-36, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Caballero, R.J., 1996. "Fixed Costs: The Demise of Marginal q," Working papers 96-14, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    40. Eytan Sheshinski & Yoram Weiss, 1977. "Inflation and Costs of Price Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(2), pages 287-303.
    41. Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April.
    42. Andre Kurmann & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2006. "Credit Market Frictions with Costly Capital Reallocation as a Propagation Mechanism," 2006 Meeting Papers 365, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    43. Pablo Kurlat, 2013. "Lemons Markets and the Transmission of Aggregate Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1463-1489, June.
    44. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    45. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    46. Alessandro Gavazza & Andrea Lanteri, 2021. "Credit Shocks and Equilibrium Dynamics in Consumer Durable Goods Markets [“Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies”]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2935-2969.
    47. Zhao Chen & Xian Jiang & Zhikuo Liu & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Daniel Yi Xu, 2023. "Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behaviour: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(2), pages 634-674.
    48. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Aleksei Oskolkov, 2023. "The Macroeconomics of Sticky Prices with Generalized Hazard Functions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(2), pages 989-1038.
    49. Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-275, May.
    50. Mervyn A. King & Don Fullerton, 1984. "The United States," NBER Chapters, in: The Taxation of Income from Capital: A Comparative Study of the United States, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Germany, pages 193-267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Panagiotis Souganidis, 2023. "Price Setting With Strategic Complementarities as a Mean Field Game," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2005-2039, November.
    52. Jianjun Miao, 2019. "Corporate Tax Policy and Long-Run Capital Formation: The Role of Irreversibility and Fixed Costs," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(1), pages 67-101, May.
    53. Andreas Dibiasi & Heiner Mikosch & Samad Sarferaz, 2021. "Uncertainty Shocks, Adjustment Costs and Firm Beliefs: Evidence From a Representative Survey," KOF Working papers 21-496, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    54. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
    55. John Asker & Allan Collard-Wexler & Jan De Loecker, 2014. "Dynamic Inputs and Resource (Mis)Allocation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(5), pages 1013-1063.
    56. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    57. Amir Kermani & Yueran Ma, 2023. "Asset Specificity of Nonfinancial Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 205-264.
    58. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A & Haltiwanger, John, 1997. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 115-137, March.
    59. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1983. "Dividend taxes, corporate investment, and `Q'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 135-167, November.
    60. Robert J. Barro, 1972. "A Theory of Monopolistic Price Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 39(1), pages 17-26.
    61. Amir Kermani & Yueran Ma, 2020. "Asset Specificity of Non-Financial Firms," NBER Working Papers 27642, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    62. Alan J. Auerbach, 1979. "Wealth Maximization and the Cost of Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(3), pages 433-446.
    63. Abel, Andrew B., 1982. "Dynamic effects of permanent and temporary tax policies in a q model of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 353-373.
    64. Guiseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 223-246.
    65. Min Fang, 2021. "Lumpy Investment, Fluctuations in Volatility and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 002001, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    66. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    67. Mervyn A. King & Don Fullerton, 1984. "The Taxation of Income from Capital: A Comparative Study of the United States, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Germany," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number king84-1.
    68. Mervyn A. King & Don Fullerton, 1984. "Introduction to "The Taxation of Income from Capital: A Comparative Study of the United States, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Germany"," NBER Chapters, in: The Taxation of Income from Capital: A Comparative Study of the United States, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Germany, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    69. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2006. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(3), pages 611-633.
    70. Nosal, Ed & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2011. "Money, Payments, and Liquidity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262016281, December.
    71. Fernando Alvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Francesco Lippi, 2016. "The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks in Sticky Price Models: A Sufficient Statistic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2817-2851, October.
    72. Christopher L. House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2008. "Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 737-768, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Priit Jeenas & Josep Pijoan-Mas & Enrique Moral-Benito & Manuel García-Santana & Julian di Giovanni, 2022. "Buy Big or Buy Small? Procurement Policies, Firms’ Financing, and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 1321, Barcelona School of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2022. "The long-run effects of corporate tax reforms," Economics Working Papers 1813, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2021. "Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1235-1264, May.
    3. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Michaels, Ryan, 2019. "Fixed adjustment costs and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 128-147.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    5. House, Christopher L., 2014. "Fixed costs and long-lived investments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 86-100.
    6. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Hayashi Meets Kiyotaki and Moore: A Theory of Capital Adjustment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 207-225, April.
    7. Min Fang, 2021. "Lumpy Investment, Fluctuations in Volatility and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 002001, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    8. Joseph Vavra, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Uncertainty: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," 2011 Meeting Papers 126, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Joseph Vavra, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 215-258.
    10. Christopher House, 2008. "Fixed Costs and Long-Lived Investments," 2008 Meeting Papers 3, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Iván Alfaro & Nicholas Bloom & Xiaoji Lin, 2024. "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 577-615.
    12. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    13. Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 2009. "The irreversibility premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 390-408, April.
    14. Sumru Altug & Fanny S. Demers & Michel Demers, 2004. "Tax Policy and Irreversible Investment," CDMA Working Paper Series 200404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    15. Christopher L. House, 2008. "Fixed Costs and Long-Lived Investments," NBER Working Papers 14402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Guceri, Irem & Albinowski, Maciej, 2021. "Investment responses to tax policy under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1147-1170.
    17. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    18. Bloom, Nick, 2006. "The impact of uncertainty shocks: firm level estimation and a 9/11 simulation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19867, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2014. "Lumpy Investment and Corporate Tax Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1171-1203, September.
    20. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, "undated". "Does Lumpy Investment Matter for Business Cycles?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2010-002, Boston University - Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    irreversibility; transitional dynamics; inaction; lumpiness; investment frictions; fixed adjustment costs; capital misallocation; Tobin's q; propagation; corporate taxes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bruno Guallar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bargses.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.