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An interaction-based foundation of aggregate investment fluctuations

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  • Nirei, Makoto

    (Institute of Innovation Research, Hitotsubashi University)

Abstract

This study demonstrates that the interactions of firm-level indivisible investments give rise to aggregate fluctuations without aggregate exogenous shocks. When investments are indivisible, aggregate capital is determined by the number of firms that invest. I develop a method to derive the closed-form distribution of the number of investing firms when each firm's initial capital level varies stochastically. This method shows that idiosyncratic shocks may lead to non-vanishing aggregate fluctuations when the number of firms tends to infinity. I incorporate this mechanism in a dynamic general equilibrium model with indivisible investment and predetermined goods prices. The model features no aggregate exogenous shocks, and the fluctuation is driven by idiosyncratic productivity shocks. Numerical simulations show that the model generates aggregate fluctuations comparable to the business cycles in magnitude and correlation structure under standard calibration.

Suggested Citation

  • Nirei, Makoto, 2015. "An interaction-based foundation of aggregate investment fluctuations," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:the:publsh:1611
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Makoto Nirei & José A. Scheinkman, 2024. "Repricing Avalanches," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1327-1388.
    2. NIREI Makoto, 2024. "Empirical Estimation of the Propagation of Investment Spikes over the Production Network," Discussion papers 24029, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Makoto Nirei & John Stachurski & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2018. "Trade Clustering and Power Laws in Financial Markets (Published in Theoretical Economics, 15:1365?1398, 2020)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-450, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Makoto Nirei & José A. Scheinkman, 2019. "Self-Organization of Inflation Volatility," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Luigi Guiso & Chaoqun Lai & Makoto Nirei, 2017. "An Empirical Study of Interaction-Based Aggregate Investment Fluctuations," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 137-157, June.
    6. Nirei, Makoto & Stachurski, John & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2020. "Trade clustering and power laws in financial markets," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(4), November.
    7. Kang‐Soek Lee & Richard A. Werner, 2023. "Are lower interest rates really associated with higher growth? New empirical evidence on the interest rate thesis from 19 countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3960-3975, October.
    8. Yukiko Saito & Makoto Nirei & Vasco Carvalho, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from Great East Japan Earthquake," 2014 Meeting Papers 595, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; strategic complementarity; idiosyncratic shock; law of large numbers; criticality; power law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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