A Global Economy Version of QUEST: Simulation Properties

This paper presents the structure and simulation properties of a core version of QUEST, an open-economy New Keynesian DSGE model developed and maintained by the European Commission. The multi-region model version with tradable goods, non-tradable goods and housing includes the euro area (EA), the nonEA EU plus the UK, the United States, Japan, Emerging Asia, and the rest of the world. The paper presents simulation results for a series of goods, factor, financial market, and policy shocks to illustrate how the structure of the model and its theoretical underpinnings shape the transmission of shocks to real and financial variables of the domestic economy and international spillover. In particular, the paper shows impulse responses for monetary policy, consumption, risk premia, productivity, credit, government spending, unconventional monetary policy and tariff shocks, and characterises their impact on real GDP, domestic demand components, trade, external balances, wages, employment, price levels, relative prices, interest rates, and public finances. While the scenarios are illustrative, they reflect important elements of the Global recession and the EA crisis (global risk shocks, private sector demand shocks and deleveraging) and of policy responses (fiscal policy, unconventional monetary policy) and challenges (protectionism) in recent years. In view of the macroeconomic conditions during this period, the paper shows simulations for an environment in which the zero lower bound on monetary policy is binding in addition to simulations under standard monetary policy.