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The potential growth impact of structural reforms in the EU. A benchmarking exercise

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  • Janos Varga
  • Jan in 't Veld

Abstract

This paper presents a quantitative model-based assessment of the potential impact of structural reforms in the EU Member States. By comparing structural indicators of labour and product markets, a gap is defined for each indicator relative to the 3 best performers. Scenarios are then simulated in which half the gap vis-à-vis best performance is closed, to avoid setting unrealistic and/or unattainable targets. The simulations show large potential gains in output and employment, raising EU GDP by 3 % after five years and 6% after ten years. While competitiveness gains are smaller under simultaneous reforms, higher demand effects help to support growth in trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2014. "The potential growth impact of structural reforms in the EU. A benchmarking exercise," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 541, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0541
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    2. Salvador Barrios & Mathias Dolls & Anamaria Maftei & Andreas Peichl & Sara Riscado & Janos Varga & Christian Wittneben, 2019. "Dynamic Scoring Of Tax Reforms In The European Union," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 239-262, January.
    3. repec:bfr:quarte:2014:38:02 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Salvador Barrios & Viginta Ivaškaitė-Tamošiūnė & Anamaria Maftei & Edlira Narazani & Janos Varga, 2020. "Progressive Tax Reforms in Flat Tax Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 83-107, March.
    5. Oliver Arentz & Clemens Recker & Leonhard Münstermann & Steffen J. Roth, 2015. "Der Dienstleistungssektor in Deutschland: Überblick und Deregulierungspotenziale," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 01/2015, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    6. Mr. Norbert Funke & Asel Isakova & Maksym Ivanyna, 2017. "Identifying Structural Reform Gaps in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2017/082, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Alain de Serres & Naomitsu Yashiro, 2017. "Reforming in a Difficult Macroeconomic Context: A Review of Issues and Recent Literature," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-41, February.
    8. Pierluigi, Beatrice & Sondermann, David, 2018. "Macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area: where do we stand?," Occasional Paper Series 211, European Central Bank.
    9. de Lecea Antonio, 2015. "Europe’s Economic Future: Europe Can Grow Faster," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 187-197, July.
    10. Brita Bye & Taran Faehn, 2021. "The Role of Human Capital in Structural Change and Growth in an Open Economy: Innovative and Absorptive Capacity Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 8857, CESifo.
    11. István P. Székely & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger, 2018. "Reform Reversals: Areas, Circumstances and Motivations," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(4), pages 559-582, December.
    12. Moshammer, Edmund & Pierluigi, Beatrice & Masuch, Klaus, 2016. "Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe," Working Paper Series 1963, European Central Bank.
    13. Romani, Ilenia & Galeotti, Marzio & Lanza, Alessandro, 2022. "Besides promising economic growth, will the Italian NRRP also produce fewer emissions?," FEEM Working Papers 319781, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    14. Campagne, Benoît & Poissonnier, Aurélien, 2018. "Structural reforms in DSGE models: Output gains but welfare losses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 397-421.
    15. Buti, Marco, 2018. "Cross-Atlantic implications of the new US policy mix," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 559-570.
    16. Fritz Breuss, 2015. "In Search of Growth in a Future with Diminished Expectations. The Case of Austria," WIFO Working Papers 493, WIFO.
    17. Roeger, Werner & Varga, Janos & Veld, Jan in 't & Vogel, Lukas, 2021. "The distributional impact of labour market reforms: A model-based assessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    18. Matthias Burgert & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2020. "A Global Economy Version of QUEST: Simulation Properties," European Economy - Discussion Papers 126, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    19. Pfeiffer, Philipp & Varga, Janos & in 't Veld, Jan, 2024. "Unleashing potential: Model-based reform benchmarking for EU Member States," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. Klaus Masuch & Edmund Moshammer & Beatrice Pierluigi, 2017. "Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 159-205.
    21. Masuch, Klaus & Moshammer, Edmund & Pierluigi, Beatrice, 2016. "Institutions and Growth in Europe," CEPS Papers 11482, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    22. Bernadette Biatour & Chantal Kegels, 2015. "Working Paper 06-15 - Labour productivity growth in Belgium - Long-term trend decline and possible actions," Working Papers 1506, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    23. Marika Santoro, 2015. "Long-term Gain, Short-Term Pain: Assessing the Potential Impact of Structural Reforms in Chile," IMF Working Papers 2015/282, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Brian Micallef, 2018. "Estimating the Impact of Structural Reforms to Increase the Female Participation Rate in Malta," International Journal of Social Science Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(8), pages 73-84, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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