IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v99y2016icp251-262.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Value-added trade and business cycle synchronization

Author

Listed:
  • Duval, Romain
  • Li, Nan
  • Saraf, Richa
  • Seneviratne, Dulani

Abstract

Ever since Frankel and Rose's (1998) seminal paper, the literature on trade and business cycle synchronization has relied on gross trade data, with weak results in recent papers that carefully address omitted variable bias. This paper re-examines this relationship using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2013. In a panel framework, we identify a significantly positive impact of bilateral (value-added) trade intensity on business cycle synchronization—controlling for global common shocks, country-pair heterogeneity and other covariates—that is absent when gross trade data are used. There is also some evidence that the impact of value-added trade on synchronization increases with the degree of (value-added) intra-industry trade. We provide a theoretical rationale for the role of value-added trade for synchronization using a simple international business cycle model that features cross-country input linkages in production.

Suggested Citation

  • Duval, Romain & Li, Nan & Saraf, Richa & Seneviratne, Dulani, 2016. "Value-added trade and business cycle synchronization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 251-262.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:99:y:2016:i:c:p:251-262
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.11.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199615001555
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.11.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(6), pages 1300-1333, December.
    3. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 459-494, February.
    4. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2013. "Financial regulation, financial globalization, and the synchronization of economic activity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228.
    5. Frankel, J-A & Rose, A-K, 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Papers 611, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    6. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    7. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    8. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
    9. Yuqing Xing & Neal Detert, 2011. "How the iPhone Widens the United States Trade Deficit with the People's Republic of China:," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 66(03), pages 339-350, September.
    10. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-124, April.
    11. Donald Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip Strahan, 2003. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 9704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Robert C. Johnson & Guillermo Noguera, 2012. "Fragmentation and Trade in Value Added over Four Decades," NBER Working Papers 18186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Cameron, A. Colin & Gelbach, Jonah B. & Miller, Douglas L., 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249.
    14. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
    15. Yuqing Xing & Neal Detert, 2010. "How the iPhone Widens the United States Trade Deficit with the People’s Republic of China," Trade Working Papers 23128, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    16. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Perri, Fabrizio, 2013. "Global banks and crisis transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 495-510.
    17. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
    18. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    19. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Five Facts about Value-Added Exports and Implications for Macroeconomics and Trade Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 119-142, Spring.
    20. Bems, Rudolfs, 2014. "Intermediate inputs, external rebalancing and relative price adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 248-262.
    21. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    22. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    23. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    24. Shin, Kwanho & Wang, Yunjong, 2004. "Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: the case of Korea with other Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-230, April.
    25. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
    26. Yuqing Xing & Neal Detert, 2010. "How the iPhone Widens the United States Trade Deficit with the People’s Republic of China," Trade Working Papers 23280, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    27. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 39-83, October.
    28. Robert C. Johnson & Guillermo Noguera, 2012. "Proximity and Production Fragmentation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 407-411, May.
    29. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2012. "Value-Added Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Donald P. Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip E. Strahan, 2004. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(4), pages 1555-1584.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    2. Yu, Chunjiao & Zhao, Jiaqi & Cheng, Shixiong, 2023. "GVC trade and business cycle synchronization between China and belt-road countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    4. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Park, Cyn-Young & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2024. "International business cycle synchronization: A synthetic assessment," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. de Soyres, François & Gaillard, Alexandre, 2022. "Global trade and GDP comovement," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Tang, Aidi & Yao, Wen, 2022. "The effects of financial integration during crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & De Santis, Roberta & Girardi, Alessandro, 2015. "Trade intensity and output synchronisation: On the endogeneity properties of EMU," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 154-163.
    8. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2020. "Fiscal policy, government size and EMU business cycle synchronization," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(2), pages 201-222, May.
    9. Zouri, Stéphane, 2020. "Business cycles, bilateral trade and financial integration: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 25-43.
    10. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2018. "Bilateral business cycle synchronisation in the EMU: What is the role of fiscal policy and government size?," Working Papers 2018.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    11. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
    12. Fries, Claudia & Kappler, Marcus, 2015. "Does foreign direct investment synchronise business cycles? Results from a panel approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-031, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    13. Inga Heiland, 2017. "Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows and the Gains from Globalization," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 74.
    14. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Imbs, Jean & Saleheen, Jumana, 2019. "Finance and synchronization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 74-87.
    15. Zouri, Stéphane, 2019. "Business cycles,bilateral trade and international financial intergration : Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," MPRA Paper 95275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Shen, Jiancheng & Selover, David D. & Li, Chao & Yousefi, Hamed, 2022. "An ocean apart? The effects of US business cycles on Chinese business cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 677-698.
    17. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Juvenal, Luciana & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2017. "Trade and synchronization in a multi-country economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 385-415.
    19. Zouri, Stéphane, 2019. "Business cycles,bilateral trade and international financial intergration : Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," MPRA Paper 98748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Igor Velickovski & Aleksandar Stojkov & Ivana Rajkovic, 2017. "DIS Union of the Core and the Periphery," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 159-174.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:99:y:2016:i:c:p:251-262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.