IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/22007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Third Country Effects of Trump Tariffs: Which Countries Benefited from Trump's Trade War?

Author

Listed:
  • ITO Tadashi

Abstract

Using monthly US tariff-line trade data, this paper analyzed the third country effects of Trump's trade war against China; more specifically, whether other countries captured the US market at the expense of China. The findings demonstrate that Trump tariffs against China substantially decreased US imports from China, whereas many US import partner countries increased exports to the US at the expense of China. The study also finds that although there was no sign of a decrease in border prices for US imports from China (no terms-of- trade improvement), US imports from other partner countries of Trump listed goods (targeting China) show a decrease in border price.

Suggested Citation

  • ITO Tadashi, 2022. "Third Country Effects of Trump Tariffs: Which Countries Benefited from Trump's Trade War?," Discussion papers 22007, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:22007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/22e007.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    2. Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
    3. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    4. Aaron Flaaen & Ali Hortaçsu & Felix Tintelnot, 2020. "The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(7), pages 2103-2127, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Deseatnicov, Ivan, 2023. "The impact of the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports of dual-use goods," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 160-179.
    2. Lukas Boer & Lukas Menkhoff & Malte Rieth, 2023. "The multifaceted impact of US trade policy on financial markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 388-406, April.
    3. Asier Minondo, 2024. "How exporters neutralised an increase in tariffs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 1274-1296, March.
    4. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Patrick J. Kennedy & Amit Khandelwal & Daria Taglioni, 2021. "The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations," NBER Working Papers 29562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Thompson, Alexi & Thompson, Henry, 2023. "Addendum: The imputed effects of US tariffs on wages," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 564-569.
    6. Liu, Nan, 2020. "Trade war from the Chinese trenches," MPRA Paper 110175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2072, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Haoyuan Ding & Bo Pu & Tong Qi & Kai Wang, 2022. "Valuation effects of the US–China trade war: The effects of foreign managers and foreign exposure," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 662-683, July.
    9. Fontagné, Lionel & Guimbard, Houssein & Orefice, Gianluca, 2022. "Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Simone Cigna & Philipp Meinen & Patrick Schulte & Nils Steinhoff, 2022. "The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 162-173, January.
    11. Blanchard, Emily J. & Bown, Chad P. & Chor, Davin, 2024. "Did Trump’s trade war impact the 2018 election?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    12. Jie Wu & Jacob Wood & Xianhai Huang, 2021. "How does GVC reconstruction affect economic growth and employment? Analysis of USA–China decoupling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(1), pages 67-81, May.
    13. Yang, Shanran & Shi, Benye & Yang, Fujia, 2023. "Macroeconomic impact of the Sino–U.S. trade frictions: Based on a two-country, two-sector DSGE model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. ITO Tadashi, 2022. "The Effects of Trump's Trade War with China on Japan's Trade," Discussion papers 22019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Karin Mayr-Dorn & Gaia Narciso & Duc Anh Dang & Hien Phan, 2023. "Trade diversion and labor market adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China trade war," Economics working papers 2023-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    16. Eric W. Bond, 2021. "Tariff pass‐through in the middle products model," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 17(1), pages 20-30, March.
    17. Daniel Carroll & Sewon Hur, 2023. "On The Distributional Effects Of International Tariffs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1311-1346, November.
    18. Zhen Xu & Xin Zhong & Zhongyan Zhang, 2022. "Does the Sino–US Trade Friction Promote Firm Innovation? The Role of the Export Grab Effect," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, February.
    19. Nikita Lopatin & Beverly Mendoza & Joseph M. Westenberg, 2024. "Section 301 and politics: Analysis of tariff exclusions," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 483-516, March.
    20. He, Chuan & Mau, Karsten & Xu, Mingzhi, 2021. "Trade Shocks and Firms Hiring Decisions: Evidence from Vacancy Postings of Chinese Firms in the Trade War," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:22007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.