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Third Country Effects of Trump Tariffs: Which Countries Benefited from Trump's Trade War?

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  • ITO Tadashi

Abstract

Using monthly US tariff-line trade data, this paper analyzed the third country effects of Trump's trade war against China; more specifically, whether other countries captured the US market at the expense of China. The findings demonstrate that Trump tariffs against China substantially decreased US imports from China, whereas many US import partner countries increased exports to the US at the expense of China. The study also finds that although there was no sign of a decrease in border prices for US imports from China (no terms-of- trade improvement), US imports from other partner countries of Trump listed goods (targeting China) show a decrease in border price.

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  • ITO Tadashi, 2022. "Third Country Effects of Trump Tariffs: Which Countries Benefited from Trump's Trade War?," Discussion papers 22007, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:22007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    2. Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
    3. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    4. Aaron Flaaen & Ali Hortaçsu & Felix Tintelnot, 2020. "The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(7), pages 2103-2127, July.
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