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Hindsight Bias and Individual Risk Attitude within the Context of Experimental Asset Markets

Author

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  • Boris Maciejovsky
  • Tarek El-Sehitya
  • Hans Haumerb
  • Christian Helmensteinc
  • Erich Kirchlerd

Abstract

This paper investigates (i) the robustness of hindsight bias in experimental asset markets, (ii) the time invariance of the different experimental risk elicitation methods of certainty equivalents and binary lottery choices, and (iii) their correspondence. The results of our within-subjects approach with 133 traders do not support the conjecture that hindsight bias is a general phenomenon. Furthermore, our findings challenge the presumption of time-stable risk preferences and of procedural invariance with respect to different experimental risk elicitation methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Maciejovsky & Tarek El-Sehitya & Hans Haumerb & Christian Helmensteinc & Erich Kirchlerd, "undated". "Hindsight Bias and Individual Risk Attitude within the Context of Experimental Asset Markets," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-16, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:esi:discus:2002-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Reinhard Selten & Abdolkarim Sadrieh & Klaus Abbink, 1999. "Money Does Not Induce Risk Neutral Behavior, but Binary Lotteries Do even Worse," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 213-252, June.
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    5. Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Rieck, Christian & Theissen, Erik, 1997. "Messung individueller Risikoeinstellungen," CFS Working Paper Series 1997/03, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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    14. Dennis Dittrich & Werner Guth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2005. "Overconfidence in investment decisions: An experimental approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 471-491.
    15. M. J. Brennan, 1995. "The Individual Investor," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 59-74, March.
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    17. Creyer, Elizabeth & William T., Jr. Ross, 1993. "Hindsight Bias and Inferences in Choice: The Mediating Effect of Cognitive Effort," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 61-77, June.
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    20. Christensen-Szalanski, Jay J. J. & Willham, Cynthia Fobian, 1991. "The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 147-168, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hubert J. Kiss & Laszlo A. Koczy & Agnes Pinter & Balazs R. Sziklai, 2019. "Does risk sorting explain bubbles?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1905, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    2. Fellner, Gerlinde & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2007. "Risk attitude and market behavior: Evidence from experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 338-350, June.
    3. Erich Kirchler & Boris Maciejovsky & Martin Weber, 2010. "Framing Effects, Selective Information and Market Behavior: An Experimental Analysis," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Kevin Lee & Scott Miller & Nicole Velasquez & Christi Wann, 2013. "The Effect of Investor Bias and Gender on Portfolio Performance and Risk," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16.
    5. Barasinska, Nataliya & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas, 2012. "Individual Risk Attitudes and the Composition of Financial Portfolios: Evidence from German Household Portfolios," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 1-14.
    6. Pierrot, Thibaud, 2019. "Negotiation under the curse of knowledge," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2019-211r, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, revised 2019.
    7. Kiss, Hubert J. & Kóczy, László Á. & Pintér, Ágnes & Sziklai, Balázs R., 2022. "Does risk sorting explain overpricing in experimental asset markets?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hindsight bias; Risk attitude; Financial markets; Experimental economics; Behavioral finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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