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Could the decrease in Belgian government debt-servicing costs offset increased age-related expenditure?

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  • Barslund, Mikkel
  • Ludolph, Lars

Abstract

This paper argues that none of the secular trends that have driven down real interest rates over the past two decades is likely to reverse in the near future. Thus, real rates can be expected to remain low and government debt-servicing costs to decrease further over the coming years. Based on these findings, the authors calculate direct gains accruing to the Belgian government from lower net debt interest payments. The savings on interest payments are then contrasted with the projected future increases in age-related expenditures on pensions, education and long-term care. The findings indicate that, if savings on interest payments are channelled to cover the increases in age-related expenditures, they will fully offset financing needs in these areas until 2030. The calculations are robust to a moderate increase in interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Barslund, Mikkel & Ludolph, Lars, 2017. "Could the decrease in Belgian government debt-servicing costs offset increased age-related expenditure?," CEPS Papers 12598, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:12598
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    Cited by:

    1. D. Cornille & H. Godefroid & L. Van Meensel & S. Van Parys, 2019. "How risky is the high public debt in a context of low interest rates ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 70-96, September.
    2. Mikkel Barslund & Lars Ludolph, 2019. "Could the decrease in Belgian government debt-servicing costs offset increased age-related expenditure?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 225-246.
    3. Gros, Daniel, 2016. "Ultra-low or Negative Yields on Euro-Area Long-term Bonds: Causes and Implications for Monetary Policy," CEPS Papers 11877, Centre for European Policy Studies.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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