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Boomer retirement: headwinds for U.S. equity markets?

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  • Zheng Liu
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

Historical data indicate a strong relationship between the age distribution of the U.S. population and stock market performance. A key demographic trend is the aging of the baby boom generation. As they reach retirement age, they are likely to shift from buying stocks to selling their equity holdings to finance retirement. Statistical models suggest that this shift could be a factor holding down equity valuations over the next two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Liu & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011. "Boomer retirement: headwinds for U.S. equity markets?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug22.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:aug22:n:2011-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. James M. Poterba, 2014. "Retirement Security in an Aging Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 1-30, May.
    2. Takáts, Előd, 2012. "Aging and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 131-141.
    3. Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2014. "The potential effect of US baby-boom retirees on stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 106-121.
    4. Mikkel Barslund & Lars Ludolph, 2019. "Could the decrease in Belgian government debt-servicing costs offset increased age-related expenditure?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 225-246.
    5. Hiroshi Fujiki & Naohisa Hirakata & Etsuro Shioji, 2012. "Aging and Household Stockholdings: Evidence from Japanese Household Survey Data," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    6. Ye Jin Heo, 2018. "Population aging and housing prices: who are we calling old?," NBP Working Papers 288, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    7. Kim, Sei-Wan & Lee, Bong-Soo & Kim, Young-Min, 2019. "Early 60s is not old enough: Evidence from twenty-one countries’ equity fund markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 62-74.
    8. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    9. Yasmine Essafi & Arnaud Simon, 2015. "Housing market and demography, evidence from French panel data," ERES eres2015_165, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    10. James M. Poterba, 2014. "Retirement Security in an Aging Society," NBER Working Papers 19930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Chen, Chaoyi & Gospodinov, Nikolay & Maynard, Alex & Pesavento, Elena, 2022. "Long-horizon stock valuation and return forecasts based on demographic projections," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-215.

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