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Measuring the equilibrium real interest rate

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  • Alejandro Justiniano
  • Giorgio E. Primiceri

Abstract

The equilibrium real interest rate represents the real rate of return required to keep the economy?s output equal to potential output. This article discusses how to measure the equilibrium real interest rate, using an empirical structural model of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2010. "Measuring the equilibrium real interest rate," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 34(Q I), pages 14-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2010:i:qi:p:14-27:n:v.34no.1
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    2. Groshenny, Nicolas, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Inflation And Unemployment: In Defense Of The Federal Reserve," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 1311-1329, September.
    3. Kei Imakubo & Haruki Kojima & Jouchi Nakajima, 2018. "The natural yield curve: its concept and measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 551-572, September.
    4. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    5. Eunil Park & Ki Joon Kim & Sang Jib Kwon & Taeil Han & Wongi S. Na & Angel P. Del Pobil, 2017. "Economic Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation Systems for Local Government Office: Evaluation of the Jeju Special Self-Governing Province in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, January.
    6. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    7. Panos Patatoukas & Hongjun Yan, 2009. "The Impact of Earnings Surprises on Stock Returns: Theory and Evidence," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2517, Yale School of Management.
    8. Kurt G. Lunsford & Kenneth D. West, 2019. "Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 113-139, October.
    9. Mikkel Barslund & Lars Ludolph, 2019. "Could the decrease in Belgian government debt-servicing costs offset increased age-related expenditure?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 225-246.
    10. Zarazúa Juárez, Carlos Alberto, 2023. "Understanding the natural rate of interest for a small open economy," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    11. Neri, Stefano & Gerali, Andrea, 2019. "Natural rates across the Atlantic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "On the international co-movement of natural interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Umino, Shingo, 2014. "Real-time estimation of the equilibrium real interest rate: Evidence from Japan," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 17-32.
    14. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2022. "Why So Low for So Long? A Long-Term View of Real Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 47-87, September.
    15. Sandra Daudignon & Oreste Tristani, 2022. "Monetary policy and the drifting natural rate of interest," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 22/1057, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    16. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2017. "Why so low for so long? A long-term view of real interest rates," BIS Working Papers 685, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "What Anchors for the Natural Rate of Interest?," PIER Discussion Papers 98, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Lee C. Spector & Courtenay C. Stone, 2010. "Suspicious Estimates of Ex Ante Real Interest Rates: Evidence of Macroeconomic Malpractice?," Working Papers 201010, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.

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    Keywords

    Interest rates; Monetary policy;

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