IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eps/cepswp/11877.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ultra-low or Negative Yields on Euro-Area Long-term Bonds: Causes and Implications for Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Gros, Daniel

Abstract

The importance of monetary policy for the current ultra-low interest rates is often over-estimated. As emphasised by ECB President Draghi himself, monetary policy cannot determine long-term rates directly, and its influence on long-term real rates is even more limited and indirect. Moreover, long-term bond yields have fallen to unprecedented low levels throughout developed countries. The influence of any single central bank on bond yields in its currency area must be quite limited if global capital markets are integrated. The importance of the ECB’s policy in driving down rates in the euro area is widely assumed to be substantial. But even the ECB does not attribute more than a one percentage point decline in rates to QE. The author of this study believes that the impact of QE has been much smaller, due to the state of global markets. It is widely accepted that a sudden reversal of rates to ‘normal’ would pose a threat to financial stability, but few believe that this is likely to materialise any time soon.

Suggested Citation

  • Gros, Daniel, 2016. "Ultra-low or Negative Yields on Euro-Area Long-term Bonds: Causes and Implications for Monetary Policy," CEPS Papers 11877, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:11877
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ceps.eu/system/files/D%20Gros%20on%20Ultra-low%20or%20Negative%20Yields%20on%20Euro-Area%20Long-term%20Bonds%20-%20CEPS%20WD.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mikkel Barslund & Lars Ludolph, 2019. "Could the decrease in Belgian government debt-servicing costs offset increased age-related expenditure?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 225-246.
    2. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas Smith, 2015. "Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate," Discussion Papers 1605, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Guonan Ma & Wang Yi, 2010. "China’s High Saving Rate: Myth and Reality," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 122, pages 5-39.
    4. Thwaites, Gregory, 2014. "Why are real interest rates so low? Secular stagnation and the relative price of investment goods," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86328, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    6. Francis Breedon & Jagjit S. Chadha & Alex Waters, 2012. "The financial market impact of UK quantitative easing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 702-728, WINTER.
    7. Francis Breedon & Jagjit S. Chadha & Alex Waters, 2012. "The financial market impact of UK quantitative easing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 702-728, WINTER.
    8. Dennis Tao Yang, 2012. "Aggregate Savings and External Imbalances in China," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 125-146, Fall.
    9. Karen E. Dynan & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2004. "Do the Rich Save More?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 397-444, April.
    10. Robert H. DeFina, 1984. "The link between savings and interest rates: a key element in the tax policy debate," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov/Dec, pages 15-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mikkel Barslund & Lars Ludolph, 2019. "Could the decrease in Belgian government debt-servicing costs offset increased age-related expenditure?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 225-246.
    2. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas D. Smith, 2017. "Are Low Real Interest Rates Here to Stay?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 1-42, September.
    3. Tyers, Rod, 2015. "International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
    4. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2019. "Financial integration and the global effects of China's growth surge," CAMA Working Papers 2019-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Lixin Tang, 2014. "Top Income Inequality, Aggregate Saving and the Gains from Trade," 2014 Papers pta581, Job Market Papers.
    6. Rod Tyers, 2016. "China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(11), pages 1674-1702, November.
    7. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun & Li, Guoqiang & Zhao, Qingbin, 2020. "An alternative explanation for high saving in China: Rising inequality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1082-1094.
    8. Rod Tyers, 2015. "Financial Integration and China's Global Impact," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 15-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    9. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "The QE experience: Worth a try?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03568216, HAL.
    10. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "Que peut-on attendre de l’assouplissement quantitatif de la BCE ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 265-290.
    11. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 3194-3220, November.
    12. Christian A Belabed & Thomas Theobald & Till van Treeck, 2018. "Income distribution and current account imbalances [Notes on capacity utilisation, distribution and accumulation]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(1), pages 47-94.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/166ip2fse39118p4oksocrf89u is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Shogbuyi, Abiodun & Steeley, James M., 2017. "The effect of quantitative easing on the variance and covariance of the UK and US equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 281-291.
    15. Boneva, Lena & de Roure, Calebe & Morley, Ben, 2018. "The impact of the Bank of England’s Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme on yield spreads," Bank of England working papers 719, Bank of England.
    16. Cezar, Rafael & Silvestrini, Maéva, 2021. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the International Investment Position," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 241-263.
    17. Joyce, Michael & Spaltro, Marco, 2014. "Quantitative easing and bank lending: a panel data approach," Bank of England working papers 504, Bank of England.
    18. De Santis, Roberto A., 2020. "Impact of the Asset Purchase Programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 192-209.
    19. Lena Boneva & David Elliott & Iryna Kaminska & Oliver Linton & Nick McLaren & Ben Morley, 2022. "The Impact of Corporate QE on Liquidity: Evidence from the UK," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(648), pages 2615-2643.
    20. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2019. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, January.
    21. Alexius, Annika, 2017. "Why are real interest rates so low? Evidence from a structural VAR with sign restrictions," Research Papers in Economics 2017:6, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:11877. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Margarita Minkova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepssbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.