IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/epa/cepawp/2011-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Automatic Stabilizing Effects of Social Security and 401(k) Plans

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This study assesses the role of Social Security (OASI) and Social Security Disability Insurance, 401(k) plans, unemployment insurance, Medicare, and the federal income tax system in moderating the business cycle in the United States. Using Instrumental Variable (IV) estimation, we demonstrate that 401(k) plans exhibit a destabilizing influence in the economy. In contrast, Social Security, especially the Old-Age Survivors Insurance (OASI) program, reacts counter-cyclically and therefore has a positive effect on macroeconomic stabilization. Comparing the automatic stabilization properties of Social Security and 401(k) with those of conventional stabilizers – federal income tax, unemployment insurance, disability, and Medicare 401(k) -- reveals that 401(k) accounts reduce the automatic stabilization properties of these government programs by up to 20 percent. Policy makers must consider this unintended macroeconomic effect before expanding individual financial accounts for the purpose of funding retirement income.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa Ghilarducci & Joelle Saad-Lessler & Eloy Fisher, 2011. "The Automatic Stabilizing Effects of Social Security and 401(k) Plans," SCEPA working paper series. 2011-2, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    • Handle: RePEc:epa:cepawp:2011-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/images/docs/research/retirement_security/Auto_Stab_paper_FINAL.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey Wenger & Christian E. Weller, 2008. "The Interplay between Labor and Financial Markets: What are the Implications for Defined Contribution Accounts?," Working Papers wp162, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    2. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
    3. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    5. Coile Courtney C & Levine Phillip B, 2011. "The Market Crash and Mass Layoffs: How the Current Economic Crisis May Affect Retirement," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-42, April.
    6. Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2008. "Social spending and automatic stabilizers in the OECD [‘Real-time output gaps in ex post policy analysis: A red herring?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(56), pages 716-756.
    7. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2010. "Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9111.
    8. Nicole Maestas, 2004. "Back to Work: Expectations and Realizations of Work After Retirement," Working Papers wp085, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    9. Duncan McVicar, 2006. "Why do disability benefit rolls vary between regions? A review of the evidence from the USA and the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 519-533.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    11. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    12. Alan J. Auerbach & Daniel R. Feenberg, 2000. "The Significance of Federal Taxes as Automatic Stabilizers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 37-56, Summer.
    13. Nicole Maestas, 2004. "Back to Work Expectations and Realizations of Work after Retirement," Working Papers WR-196, RAND Corporation.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. AILINCA, Alina Georgeta, 2014. "Automatic Social Stabilizers What They Are And How They Function," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 18(3), pages 45-57.
    2. AILINCĂ, Alina Georgeta, 2015. "Automatic Monetary Stabilizers – A Solution For A Better Monetary Policy And Economy Functioning," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 2(1), pages 47-58.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2021. "Output-volatility reducing effects of automatic stabilizers: Policy implications for EMU member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1388-1414.
    2. Giorgio Motta & Patrizio Tirelli, 2012. "Optimal Simple Monetary and Fiscal Rules under Limited Asset Market Participation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1374, October.
    3. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2019. "Output-volatility reducing effect of automatic stabilizers: Evidence from nine EMU member states," EconStor Preprints 206687, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Wei Dong & Geoffrey Dunbar & Christian Friedrich & Dmitry Matveev & Romanos Priftis & Lin Shao, 2021. "Complementarities Between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy—Literature Review," Discussion Papers 2021-4, Bank of Canada.
    5. Rieth, Malte & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Attinasi, Maria-Grazia, 2016. "Personal income tax progressivity and output volatility: Evidence from OECD countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 968-996.
    6. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Rieth, Malte, 2011. "Labour tax progressivity and output volatility: evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1380, European Central Bank.
    7. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2016. "The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 141-194, January.
    8. Jan Veld & Martin Larch & Marieke Vandeweyer, 2013. "Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers: What They Are and What They Do," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 147-163, February.
    9. AILINCA, Alina Georgeta, 2014. "Automatic Social Stabilizers What They Are And How They Function," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 18(3), pages 45-57.
    10. Alari Paulus & Iva Valentinova Tasseva, 2020. "Europe Through the Crisis: Discretionary Policy Changes and Automatic Stabilizers," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, August.
    11. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    12. Sebastian Dellepiane & Niamh Hardiman, 2012. "Fiscal Politics In Time: Pathways to Fiscal Consolidation, 1980-2012," Working Papers 201228, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    13. Carles Manera, 2016. "A systemic crisis in the context of globalization: the Great Recession in the perspective of economic history, 1970-2008," DEA Working Papers 77, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    14. Tarafás, Imre, 2016. "Kinyílnak-e az őszirózsák?. Kitekintés a válság utáni monetáris politikára [A glance at post-crisis monetary policy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 548-563.
    15. David Staines, 2023. "Stochastic Equilibrium the Lucas Critique and Keynesian Economics," Papers 2312.16214, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    16. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Morten Rasmussen & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "Economic Resilience: What Role for Policies?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-44, June.
    17. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2021. "Optimal Automatic Stabilizers [Consumption versus Expenditure]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(5), pages 2375-2406.
    18. Markus Leibrecht & Johann Scharler, 2015. "Government Size and Business Cycle Volatility: How Important are Credit Constraints?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(326), pages 201-221, April.
    19. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani, 2016. "The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer," NBER Working Papers 22625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Koester, Gerrit B. & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2015. "The Timing and Responsiveness of Fiscal Policy over the Business Cycle in Germany," MPRA Paper 68412, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Automatic stabilizers; Social Security; 401(k) plans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:epa:cepawp:2011-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bridget Fisher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cenewus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.