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Kinyílnak-e az őszirózsák?. Kitekintés a válság utáni monetáris politikára
[A glance at post-crisis monetary policy]

Author

Listed:
  • Tarafás, Imre

Abstract

A 2008-as válság előtt a fejlett országokban már általánosan használták a monetáris politika indirekt eszközeit, ami azóta is jellemző: a jegybanki kamatlábak leszorítását egészen nulla közelébe és a hosszabb lejáratú kamatok csökkentését célzó mennyiségi lazítást. A válságra adott gazdaságpolitikai válasz másik ágán a költségvetési politika állt, legalábbis az első években magas deficitekkel. Bár a válság aligha tekinthető lezártnak, a monetáris politika válság utáni működésére olyan elképzelések ismertek, amelyek szerint közvetett eszközökkel fogják kezelni az elmúlt időszak gyakorlata nyomán kialakult helyzetet. Ugyanakkor az államadósság szintje általában magas, és további jelentős növekedésére irányuló erők hatnak. Elkerülésére legjobb lenne a gyors gazdasági növekedés, ennek kilátásai azonban nem biztatók. Valószínűbb, hogy kiigazítások, megszorítások, strukturális reformok sorozatával veszik elejét a kezelhetetlen szintű államadósság kialakulásának. Nem lehet kizárni, hogy az ilyen módszerek között igénybe veszik a "pénzügyi represszió" közvetlen (direkt) monetáris eszközökön keresztüli módszerét. Ebben az esetben elkerülhetetlen lesz a nemzetközi tőkeáramlás korlátozása, amit más érvek is indokolnak. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E42, E52, F33.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarafás, Imre, 2016. "Kinyílnak-e az őszirózsák?. Kitekintés a válság utáni monetáris politikára [A glance at post-crisis monetary policy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 548-563.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1631
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2016.5.548
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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