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Long-term vs Short-term Contracts: A European Perspective on Natural Gas

Author

Listed:
  • Karsten Neuhoff

    (University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics)

  • Christian von Hirschhausen

    (DIW Berlin, and Dresden University of Technology)

Abstract

This paper analyses the economics of long-term gas contracts under changing institutional conditions, mainly gas sector liberalisation. The paper is motivated by the increasingly tense debate in continental Europe, UK and the US on the security of long-term gas supply. We discuss the main issues regarding long-term contracts, i.e. the changing role of the flexibility clause, the effect of abandoning the destination clause, and the strategic behaviour of producers between long-term sales and spot-sales. The literature suggests consumers and producers benefit from risk hedging through long-term contracts. Furthermore long-term contracts may reduce exercise of market power. This was argued to benefit consumers at the ‘expense’ of producers’ profits. Our analysis shows if the long-run demand elasticity is significantly lower than the short-run elasticity, both strategic producers and consumers benefit from lower prices and larger market volume. Some policy implications of the findings are also discussed.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Karsten Neuhoff & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Long-term vs Short-term Contracts: A European Perspective on Natural Gas," Working Papers EPRG 0505, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg0505
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    3. ABADA, Ibrahim & EHRENMANN, Andreas & SMEERS, Yves, 2014. "Endogenizing long-term contracts in gas market models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2014036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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    5. Chi Kong Chyong & David M Reiner & Dhruvak Aggarwal, 2023. "Market Power and Long-term Gas Contracts: The Case of Gazprom in Central and Eastern European Gas Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(1), pages 55-74, January.
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    8. Catherine Locatelli, 2007. "Les stratégies d'internationalisation de Gazprom, enjeu de la constitution d'une grande compagnie d'Etat russe," Post-Print halshs-00115377, HAL.
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    10. Glachant, Jean-Michel & Hallack, Michelle, 2009. "Take-or-pay contract robustness: A three step story told by the Brazil-Bolivia gas case?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 651-657, February.
    11. Hauteclocque, Adrien de & Glachant, Jean-Michel, 2009. "Long-term energy supply contracts in European competition policy: Fuzzy not crazy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5399-5407, December.
    12. Evert Faber Van Der Meulen, 2009. "Gas Supply and EU–Russia Relations," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(5), pages 833-856.
    13. Karsten Neuhoff, 2022. "Defining Gas Price Limits and Gas Saving Targets for a Large-scale Gas Supply Interruption: Final Report," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 127, number pbk180.
    14. Ishmael Ackah & Freda Opoku & Sarah Anang, 2019. "Switching on an Environmentally Friendly and Affordable Light in Africa: Evaluation of the Role of Natural Gas," Insight on Africa, , vol. 11(1), pages 60-77, January.
    15. Amina Baba & Anna Creti & Olivier Massol, 2020. "What can we Learn from the Free Destination Option in the LNG Imbroglio ?," Working Papers hal-03181028, HAL.
    16. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2008. "Indexed regulation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 221-233, November.
    17. Keyaerts, Nico & Hallack, Michelle & Glachant, Jean-Michel & D'haeseleer, William, 2011. "Gas market distorting effects of imbalanced gas balancing rules: Inefficient regulation of pipeline flexibility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 865-876, February.
    18. Peter Buhanist, 2015. "Path Dependency in the Energy Industry: The Case of Long-term Oil-indexed Gas Import Contracts in Continental Europe," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 934-948.
    19. Roques, Fabien A., 2008. "Technology choices for new entrants in liberalized markets: The value of operating flexibility and contractual arrangements," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 245-253, December.
    20. Neuhoff, K., 2022. "Defining gas price limits and gas saving targets for a large-scale gas supply interruption," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2253, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    21. Sutrisno, Aziiz & Nomaler, Ӧnder & Alkemade, Floor, 2021. "Has the global expansion of energy markets truly improved energy security?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    22. Özge Dilaver & Zafer Dilaver & Lester C Hunt, 2013. "What Drives Natural Gas Consumption in Europe? Analysis and Projections," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 143, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    23. Anne Neumann & Sophia Rüster & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2015. "Long-Term Contracts in the Natural Gas Industry: Literature Survey and Data on 426 Contracts (1965-2014)," Data Documentation 77, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    24. Goudarzi, Fatemeh (Sahar) & Olaru, Doina & Bergey, Paul, 2023. "Beyond risk attitude: Unpacking behavioral drivers of supply chain contracts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    contracts; gas; market power; demand elasticity; liberalisation; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities

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