IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/123034.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of energy prices on industrial investment location: evidence from global firm level data

Author

Listed:
  • Saussay, Aurelien
  • Sato, Misato

Abstract

This study examines the influence of relative energy prices on the geographical distribution of industrial investments across 41 countries. Employing a gravity model framework to analyse firms’ investment location decisions, we estimate the model using global bilateral investment flows derived from firm-level M&A data. Our findings reveal that a 10% increase in the energy price differential between two countries results in a 3.2% rise in cross-border acquisitions. This effect is most pronounced in energy-intensive industries and transactions targeting emerging economies. Furthermore, policy simulations suggest that the impact of unilateral carbon pricing on cross-border investments is modest.

Suggested Citation

  • Saussay, Aurelien & Sato, Misato, 2024. "The impact of energy prices on industrial investment location: evidence from global firm level data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123034, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:123034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/123034/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph S Shapiro, 2021. "The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 831-886.
    2. Alquist, Ron & Berman, Nicolas & Mukherjee, Rahul & Tesar, Linda L., 2019. "Financial constraints, institutions, and foreign ownership," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 63-83.
    3. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Roberto A. De Santis & Antonin Aviat, 2009. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and European integration [‘Capital flows in a globalised world: The role of policies and institutions’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(57), pages 56-106.
    4. Jitao Tang, 2015. "Testing the Pollution Haven Effect: Does the Type of FDI Matter?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 60(4), pages 549-578, April.
    5. Edward Manderson & Richard Kneller, 2012. "Environmental Regulations, Outward FDI and Heterogeneous Firms: Are Countries Used as Pollution Havens?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(3), pages 317-352, March.
    6. Ben Kheder, Sonia & Zugravu, Natalia, 2012. "Environmental regulation and French firms location abroad: An economic geography model in an international comparative study," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 48-61.
    7. Xavier Giroud & Joshua Rauh, 2019. "State Taxation and the Reallocation of Business Activity: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1262-1316.
    8. Arezki, Rabah & Fetzer, Thiemo & Pisch, Frank, 2017. "On the comparative advantage of U.S. manufacturing: Evidence from the shale gas revolution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 34-59.
    9. Yann Robiou du Pont & Malte Meinshausen, 2018. "Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein, 2008. "Pricing-to-Market, Trade Costs, and International Relative Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1998-2031, December.
    11. Rema Hanna, 2010. "US Environmental Regulation and FDI: Evidence from a Panel of US-Based Multinational Firms," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 158-189, July.
    12. Sato, Misato & Dechezleprêtre, Antoine, 2015. "Asymmetric industrial energy prices and international trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(S1), pages 130-141.
    13. Ratti, Ronald A. & Seol, Youn & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2011. "Relative energy price and investment by European firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 721-731, September.
    14. Koch, Nicolas & Basse Mama, Houdou, 2019. "Does the EU Emissions Trading System induce investment leakage? Evidence from German multinational firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 479-492.
    15. Ralf Martin & Mirabelle Mu?ls & Laure B. de Preux & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2014. "Industry Compensation under Relocation Risk: A Firm-Level Analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2482-2508, August.
    16. Konstantin Stadler & Richard Wood & Tatyana Bulavskaya & Carl†Johan Södersten & Moana Simas & Sarah Schmidt & Arkaitz Usubiaga & José Acosta†Fernández & Jeroen Kuenen & Martin Bruckner & Stefan, 2018. "EXIOBASE 3: Developing a Time Series of Detailed Environmentally Extended Multi†Regional Input†Output Tables," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 22(3), pages 502-515, June.
    17. Joseph E. Aldy & William A. Pizer, 2015. "The Competitiveness Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policies," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(4), pages 565-595.
    18. Frank Venmans & Jane Ellis & Daniel Nachtigall, 2020. "Carbon pricing and competitiveness: are they at odds?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(9), pages 1070-1091, October.
    19. Fally, Thibault, 2015. "Structural gravity and fixed effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 76-85.
    20. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mansur, Erin T., 2013. "Do local energy prices and regulation affect the geographic concentration of employment?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 105-114.
    21. Brainard, S Lael, 1997. "An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off between Multinational Sales and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 520-544, September.
    22. Janet Ceglowski & Stephen S. Golub, 2012. "Does China Still Have a Labor Cost Advantage?," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 1-30, August.
    23. Manderson, Edward J. & Kneller, Richard, 2020. "Energy endowments and the location of manufacturing firms," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    24. Breinlich, Holger, 2008. "Trade liberalization and industrial restructuring through mergers and acquisitions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 254-266, December.
    25. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Roberto A. de Santis & Antonin Aviat, 2009. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and European integration," SciencePo Working papers hal-01022660, HAL.
    26. Jean-François Arvis & Ben Shepherd, 2013. "The Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood estimator: a solution to the ‘adding up’ problem in gravity models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 515-519, April.
    27. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 1996. "Inter-City Competition for Foreign Investment: Static and Dynamic Effects of China's Incentive Areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 38-60, July.
    28. Sharat Ganapati & Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2020. "Energy Cost Pass-Through in US Manufacturing: Estimates and Implications for Carbon Taxes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 303-342, April.
    29. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
    30. Frédéric Branger, Philippe Quirion, Julien Chevallier, 2017. "Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness of Cement and Steel Industries Under the EU ETS: Much Ado About Nothing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    31. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2005. "Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 85-91, February.
    32. Naegele, Helene & Zaklan, Aleksandar, 2019. "Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 125-147.
    33. Josh Ederington & Arik Levinson & Jenny Minier, 2005. "Footloose and Pollution-Free," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 92-99, February.
    34. Tim Jeppesen & John A. List & Henk Folmer, 2002. "Environmental Regulations and New Plant Location Decisions: Evidence from a Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 19-49, February.
    35. di Giovanni, Julian, 2005. "What drives capital flows? The case of cross-border M&A activity and financial deepening," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 127-149, January.
    36. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70aj72cl is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Mohamed Amine Boutabba & Sandrine Lardic, 2017. "EU Emissions Trading Scheme, competitiveness and carbon leakage: new evidence from cement and steel industries," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 47-61, August.
    38. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 451-471, June.
    39. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger, 2019. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 1, pages 3-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    40. Hijzen, Alexander & Görg, Holger & Manchin, Miriam, 2008. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and the role of trade costs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 849-866, July.
    41. List, John A. & McHone, W. Warren & Millimet, Daniel L., 2004. "Effects of environmental regulation on foreign and domestic plant births: is there a home field advantage?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 303-326, September.
    42. Maximilian Todtenhaupt & Johannes Voget, 2021. "International Taxation and Productivity Effects of M&As," CESifo Working Paper Series 8967, CESifo.
    43. Gregoire Garsous, Tomasz Kozluk, Dennis Dlugosch, 2020. "Do Energy Prices Drive Outward FDI? Evidence from a Sample of Listed Firms," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 63-80.
    44. Mohamed Amine Boutabba & Sandrine Lardic, 2017. "EU Emissions Trading Scheme, competitiveness and carbon leakage: new evidence from cement and steel industries," Post-Print hal-02877954, HAL.
    45. McGuire, Martin C., 1982. "Regulation, factor rewards, and international trade," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 335-354, April.
    46. Ulrich Wagner & Christopher Timmins, 2009. "Agglomeration Effects in Foreign Direct Investment and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(2), pages 231-256, June.
    47. Rezza, Alief A., 2015. "A meta-analysis of FDI and environmental regulations," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 185-208, April.
    48. Laurent Bergé, 2018. "Efficient estimation of maximum likelihood models with multiple fixed-effects: the R package FENmlm," DEM Discussion Paper Series 18-13, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    49. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:24:y:2009:i::p:55-106 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. Meredith L. Fowlie & Mar Reguant, 2022. "Mitigating Emissions Leakage in Incomplete Carbon Markets," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 307-343.
    51. Stefano F. Verde, 2020. "The Impact Of The Eu Emissions Trading System On Competitiveness And Carbon Leakage: The Econometric Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 320-343, April.
    52. Claire Brunel & Arik Levinson, 2016. "Measuring the Stringency of Environmental Regulations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 47-67.
    53. Sébastien Raspiller & Nicolas Riedinger, 2008. "Do Environmental Regulations Influence the Location Behavior of French Firms?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(3), pages 382-395.
    54. Wheeler, David & Mody, Ashoka, 1992. "International investment location decisions : The case of U.S. firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
    55. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70aj72cl is not listed on IDEAS
    56. Eckhard Siggel, 2006. "International Competitiveness and Comparative Advantage: A Survey and a Proposal for Measurement," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 137-159, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aurélien Saussay & Misato Sato, 2018. "The Impacts of Energy Prices on Industrial Foreign Investment Location: Evidence from Global Firm Level Data," Working Papers hal-03475473, HAL.
    2. Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Misato Sato, 2017. "The Impacts of Environmental Regulations on Competitiveness," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(2), pages 183-206.
    3. Grégoire Garsous & Tomasz Kozluk, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investment and The Pollution Haven Hypothesis: Evidence from Listed Firms," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1379, OECD Publishing.
    4. Saussay, Aurélien & Zugravu-Soilita, Natalia, 2023. "International production chains and the pollution offshoring hypothesis: An empirical investigation," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Filippo Maria D'Arcangelo & Marzio Galeotti, 2022. "Environmental Policy and Investment Location: The Risk of Carbon Leakage in the EU ETS," Working Papers 2022.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. D'Arcangelo, Maria Filippo & Galeotti, Marzio, 2022. "Environmental Policy and Investment Location: The Risk of Carbon Leakage in the EU ETS," FEEM Working Papers 327158, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Camarero, Mariam & Moliner, Sergi & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2024. "A Fresh Assessment of the Depth of the “Euro Effect" on US FDI," Single Market Economics Papers WP2024/18, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    8. Sylwia Bialek & Alfons J. Weichenrieder, 2021. "Do Stringent Environmental Policies Deter FDI? M&A versus Greenfield," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(3), pages 603-636, November.
    9. Chung, Sunghoon, 2014. "Environmental regulation and foreign direct investment: Evidence from South Korea," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 222-236.
    10. Nils Herger & Steve McCorriston, 2014. "Horizontal, Vertical, and Conglomerate Cross Border Acquisitions," Discussion Papers 1402, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    11. Sunghoon Chung, 2012. "Environmental Regulation and the Pattern of Outward FDI: An Empirical Assessment of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis," Departmental Working Papers 1203, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    12. Arjan Trinks & Erik Hille, 2023. "Carbon costs and industrial firm performance: Evidence from international microdata," CPB Discussion Paper 445, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Nils Herger & Steve McCorriston, 2014. "Horizontal, Vertical, and Conglomerate FDI: Evidence from Cross Border Acquisitions," Working Papers 14.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    14. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Gennaioli, Caterina & Martin, Ralf & Muûls, Mirabelle & Stoerk, Thomas, 2022. "Searching for carbon leaks in multinational companies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    15. Edward Manderson & Richard Kneller, 2012. "Environmental Regulations, Outward FDI and Heterogeneous Firms: Are Countries Used as Pollution Havens?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(3), pages 317-352, March.
    16. Natalia Zugravu-Soilita, 2017. "Trade in Environmental Goods: Empirical Exploration of Direct and Indirect Effects on Pollution by Country’s Trade Status," Working Papers 2017.56, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    17. Raphaël Chiappini, 2014. "Institutional Determinants of Japanese Outward FDI in the Manufacturing Industry," GREDEG Working Papers 2014-11, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    18. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Determinants of German outward FDI: variable selection using Bayesian statistical," Working Papers 1906, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    19. Camarero, Mariam & Montolio, Laura & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2019. "What drives German foreign direct investment? New evidence using Bayesian statistical techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 326-345.
    20. Robert J R Elliott & Puyang Sun & Tong Zhu, 2021. "Energy Abundance, the Geographical Distribution of Manufacturing, and International Trade," Discussion Papers 21-16, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; mergers and aquistions; energy prices; firm location; competitiveness impacts; carbon leakage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:123034. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.