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Triangle inequalities in international trade: The neglected dimension

Author

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  • Foellmi, Reto
  • Hepenstrick, Christian
  • Torun, David

Abstract

Estimating trade costs is key to understanding the welfare effects of trade liberalizations. Cost minimization implies that the triangle inequality (TI) of international trade costs must hold for any three countries to avoid cross-border arbitrage. We show that re-routing opportunities might arise when trade costs change because a shipment through an intermediary becomes cheaper. The TI captures such re-routing opportunities. However, standard approaches to calculating the gains from trade liberalizations ignore this no-arbitrage condition. We outline an estimation routine that is model-consistent and respects the TI. Counterfactual exercises suggest that the welfare gains from re-routing after trade liberalizations can be substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • Foellmi, Reto & Hepenstrick, Christian & Torun, David, 2024. "Triangle inequalities in international trade: The neglected dimension," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:152:y:2024:i:c:s0022199624001454
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade costs; Re-routing; Triangle inequality; Exact hat algebra; Welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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