IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/113892.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Heterogeneous criticality in high frequency finance: a phase transition in flash crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Turiel, Jeremy D.
  • Aste, Tomaso

Abstract

Flash crashes in financial markets have become increasingly important, attracting attention from financial regulators, market makers as well as from the media and the broader audience. Systemic risk and the propagation of shocks in financial markets is also a topic of great relevance that has attracted increasing attention in recent years. In the present work, we bridge the gap between these two topics with an in-depth investigation of the systemic risk structure of co-crashes in high frequency trading. We find that large co-crashes are systemic in their nature and differ from small ones. We demonstrate that there is a phase transition between co-crashes of small and large sizes, where the former involves mostly illiquid stocks, while large and liquid stocks are the most represented and central in the latter. This suggests that systemic effects and shock propagation might be triggered by simultaneous withdrawals or movement of liquidity by HFTs, arbitrageurs and market makers with cross-asset exposures.

Suggested Citation

  • Turiel, Jeremy D. & Aste, Tomaso, 2022. "Heterogeneous criticality in high frequency finance: a phase transition in flash crashes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113892, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:113892
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/113892/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bacry, E. & Delour, J. & Muzy, J.F., 2001. "Modelling financial time series using multifractal random walks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 84-92.
    2. Stephen J. Hardiman & Nicolas Bercot & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2013. "Critical reflexivity in financial markets: a Hawkes process analysis," Papers 1302.1405, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2013.
    3. P. Blanc & J. Donier & J.-P. Bouchaud, 2017. "Quadratic Hawkes processes for financial prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 171-188, February.
    4. Sanjeev Bhojraj & Robert J. Bloomfield & William B. Tayler, 2009. "Margin Trading, Overpricing, and Synchronization Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 2059-2085, May.
    5. Alexandra Chronopoulou & Frederi G. Viens, 2012. "Stochastic volatility and option pricing with long-memory in discrete and continuous time," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 635-649, December.
    6. Paulin, James & Calinescu, Anisoara & Wooldridge, Michael, 2019. "Understanding flash crash contagion and systemic risk: A micro–macro agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 200-229.
    7. Chester Curme & Michele Tumminello & Rosario N. Mantegna & H. Eugene Stanley & Dror Y. Kenett, 2015. "Emergence of statistically validated financial intraday lead-lag relationships," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 1375-1386, August.
    8. Jeremy D. Turiel & Tomaso Aste, 2021. "Self-organised criticality in high frequency finance: the case of flash crashes," Papers 2110.13718, arXiv.org.
    9. Xuqing Huang & Irena Vodenska & Shlomo Havlin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2012. "Cascading Failures in Bi-partite Graphs: Model for Systemic Risk Propagation," Papers 1210.4973, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
    10. Giovanni Cespa & Thierry Foucault, 2014. "Illiquidity Contagion and Liquidity Crashes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(6), pages 1615-1660.
    11. Abreu, Dilip & Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2002. "Synchronization risk and delayed arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 341-360.
    12. Giacomo Bormetti & Lucio Maria Calcagnile & Michele Treccani & Fulvio Corsi & Stefano Marmi & Fabrizio Lillo, 2015. "Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 1137-1156, July.
    13. Lucio Maria Calcagnile & Giacomo Bormetti & Michele Treccani & Stefano Marmi & Fabrizio Lillo, 2018. "Collective synchronization and high frequency systemic instabilities in financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 237-247, February.
    14. Neil Johnson & Guannan Zhao & Eric Hunsader & Jing Meng & Amith Ravindar & Spencer Carran & Brian Tivnan, 2012. "Financial black swans driven by ultrafast machine ecology," Papers 1202.1448, arXiv.org.
    15. Stephen Hardiman & Nicolas Bercot & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2013. "Critical reflexivity in financial markets: a Hawkes process analysis," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 86(10), pages 1-9, October.
    16. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    17. Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008. "Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
    18. Boudt, Kris & Croux, Christophe & Laurent, Sébastien, 2011. "Robust estimation of intraweek periodicity in volatility and jump detection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 353-367, March.
    19. Jain, Pankaj K. & Jain, Pawan & McInish, Thomas H., 2016. "Does high-frequency trading increase systemic risk?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-24.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vidal-Tomás, David, 2023. "The illusion of the metaverse and meta-economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Antonio Briola & Silvia Bartolucci & Tomaso Aste, 2024. "Deep Limit Order Book Forecasting," Papers 2403.09267, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antoine Fosset & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2020. "Non-parametric Estimation of Quadratic Hawkes Processes for Order Book Events," Papers 2005.05730, arXiv.org.
    2. Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2020. "Modeling aggressive market order placements with Hawkes factor models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, January.
    3. Tobias Braun & Jonas A Fiegen & Daniel C Wagner & Sebastian M Krause & Thomas Guhr, 2018. "Impact and recovery process of mini flash crashes: An empirical study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-11, May.
    4. Hyun Jin Jang & Kiseop Lee & Kyungsub Lee, 2020. "Systemic risk in market microstructure of crude oil and gasoline futures prices: A Hawkes flocking model approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 247-275, February.
    5. Antoine Fosset & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2020. "Non-parametric Estimation of Quadratic Hawkes Processes for Order Book Events," Working Papers hal-02998555, HAL.
    6. Antoine Fosset & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2021. "Non-parametric Estimation of Quadratic Hawkes Processes for Order Book Events," Post-Print hal-02998555, HAL.
    7. James Paulin & Anisoara Calinescu & Michael Wooldridge, 2018. "Understanding Flash Crash Contagion and Systemic Risk: A Micro-Macro Agent-Based Approach," Papers 1805.08454, arXiv.org.
    8. Paulin, James & Calinescu, Anisoara & Wooldridge, Michael, 2019. "Understanding flash crash contagion and systemic risk: A micro–macro agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 200-229.
    9. Marcello Rambaldi & Vladimir Filimonov & Fabrizio Lillo, 2016. "Detection of intensity bursts using Hawkes processes: an application to high frequency financial data," Papers 1610.05383, arXiv.org.
    10. Serdengeçti, Süleyman & Sensoy, Ahmet & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2021. "Dynamics of return and liquidity (co) jumps in emerging foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Massil Achab & Emmanuel Bacry & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy & Marcello Rambaldi, 2017. "Analysis of order book flows using a nonparametric estimation of the branching ratio matrix," Papers 1706.03411, arXiv.org.
    12. Mathieu Rosenbaum & Jianfei Zhang, 2022. "On the universality of the volatility formation process: when machine learning and rough volatility agree," Papers 2206.14114, arXiv.org.
    13. Johann Lussange & Stefano Vrizzi & Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde & Stefano Palminteri & Boris Gutkin, 2023. "Stock Price Formation: Precepts from a Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1523-1544, April.
    14. Lucio Maria Calcagnile & Giacomo Bormetti & Michele Treccani & Stefano Marmi & Fabrizio Lillo, 2015. "Collective synchronization and high frequency systemic instabilities in financial markets," Papers 1505.00704, arXiv.org.
    15. repec:wsi:acsxxx:v:21:y:2018:i:08:n:s0219525918500194 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Miko{l}aj Bi'nkowski & Charles-Albert Lehalle, 2018. "Endogeneous Dynamics of Intraday Liquidity," Papers 1811.03766, arXiv.org.
    17. Clements, Adam & Liao, Yin, 2017. "Forecasting the variance of stock index returns using jumps and cojumps," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 729-742.
    18. Antoine Fosset & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2020. "Endogenous Liquidity Crises," Post-Print hal-02567495, HAL.
    19. Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-25, Swiss Finance Institute.
    20. Aditi Dandapani & Paul Jusselin & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2019. "From quadratic Hawkes processes to super-Heston rough volatility models with Zumbach effect," Papers 1907.06151, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    21. Pierre Blanc & Jonathan Donier & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2015. "Quadratic Hawkes processes for financial prices," Papers 1509.07710, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    criticality; financial networks; flash crash; high frequency trading; market microstructure; phase transition; systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:113892. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.