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Changes in beverage purchases following the announcement and implementation of South Africa's Health Promotion Levy: an observational study

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  • Stacey, Nicholas
  • Edoka, Ijeoma
  • Hofman, Karen
  • Swart, Elizabeth C
  • Popkin, Barry
  • Ng, Shu Wen

Abstract

BACKGROUND: In 2016, South Africa announced an intention to levy a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). In 2018, the country implemented an SSB tax of approximately 10%, known as the Health Promotion Levy (HPL). We aimed to assess changes in the purchases of beverages before and after the HPL announcement and implementation. METHODS: We used Kantar Europanel data on monthly household purchases between January, 2014, and March, 2019, among a sample of South African households (n=113 653 household-month observations) from all nine provinces to obtain per-capita sugar, calories, and volume from taxable and non-taxable beverages purchased before and after the HPL announcement and implementation. We describe survey-weighted means for each period, and regression-controlled predictions of outcomes and counterfactuals based on pre-HPL announcement trends, with bootstrapped 95% CIs, and stratify results by socioeconomic status. FINDINGS: Mean sugar from taxable beverage purchases fell from 16·25 g/capita per day (95% CI 15·80-16·70) to 14·26 (13·85-14·67) from the pre-HPL announcement to post-announcement period, and then to 10·63 g/capita per day (10·22-11·04) in the year after implementation. Mean volumes of taxable beverage purchases fell from 518·99 mL/capita per day (506·90-531·08) to 492·16 (481·28-503·04) from pre-announcement to post announcement, and then to 443·39 mL/capita per day (430·10-456·56) after implementation. Across these time periods, there was a small increase in the purchases of non-taxable beverages, from 283·45 mL/capita per day (273·34-293·56) pre-announcement to 312·94 (296·29-329·29) post implementation. When compared with pre-announcement counterfactual trends, reductions in taxable beverage purchase outcomes were significantly larger than the unadjusted survey-weighted observed reductions. Households with lower socioeconomic status purchased larger amounts of taxable beverages in the pre-announcement period than did households with higher socioeconomic status, but demonstrated bigger reductions after the tax was implemented. INTERPRETATION: The announcement and introduction of South Africa's HPL were followed by reductions in the sugar, calories, and volume of beverage purchases. FUNDING: Bloomberg Philanthropies, International Development Research Centre, South African Medical Research Council, and the US National Institutes of Health.

Suggested Citation

  • Stacey, Nicholas & Edoka, Ijeoma & Hofman, Karen & Swart, Elizabeth C & Popkin, Barry & Ng, Shu Wen, 2021. "Changes in beverage purchases following the announcement and implementation of South Africa's Health Promotion Levy: an observational study," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 109878, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:109878
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    5. Peter Scarborough & Vyas Adhikari & Richard A Harrington & Ahmed Elhussein & Adam Briggs & Mike Rayner & Jean Adams & Steven Cummins & Tarra Penney & Martin White, 2020. "Impact of the announcement and implementation of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy on sugar content, price, product size and number of available soft drinks in the UK, 2015-19: A controlled interrupted," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-19, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bercholz, Maxime & Ng, Shu Wen & Stacey, Nicholas & Swart, Elizabeth C., 2022. "Decomposing consumer and producer effects on sugar from beverage purchases after a sugar-based tax on beverages in South Africa," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    2. Elena Ye. Chernyakova & Anna F. Bogatyreva & Ekaterina A. Yastrebova, 2023. "Международный Опыт Налогообложения Сахаросодержащих Напитков," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 65-73, December.
    3. Michael Essman & Lindsey Smith Taillie & Tamryn Frank & Shu Wen Ng & Barry M Popkin & Elizabeth C Swart, 2021. "Taxed and untaxed beverage intake by South African young adults after a national sugar-sweetened beverage tax: A before-and-after study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(5), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Borumand, Ali & Marandi, Ahmadreza & Nookabadi, Ali S. & Atan, Zümbül, 2024. "An oracle-based algorithm for robust planning of production routing problems in closed-loop supply chains of beverage glass bottles," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Hofman, Karen J. & Stacey, Nicholas & Swart, Elizabeth C. & Popkin, Barry M. & Ng, Shu Wen, 2021. "South Africa's Health Promotion Levy: excise tax findings and equity potential," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110921, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Elena Ye. Chernyakova & Anna F. Bogatyreva & Ekaterina A. Yastrebova, 2023. "International Experience in Taxation of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages [Международный Опыт Налогообложения Сахаросодержащих Напитков]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 65-73, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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