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Liberal trade policy and food insecurity across the income distribution: an observational analysis in 132 countries, 2014–17

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  • Barlow, Pepita
  • Loopstra, Rachel
  • Tarasuk, Valerie
  • Reeves, Aaron

Abstract

Background. Eradicating food insecurity is necessary for achieving global health goals. Liberal trade policies may increase food supplies but how these policies influence individual-level food insecurity remains uncertain. Methods. We combined Food and Agricultural Organization data from 460,102 persons in 132 countries, 2014-2017, with a country-level trade policy index from the Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF) Swiss Economic Institute. We examined the association between a country’s trade policy score and the probability of reporting ‘moderate/severe’ food insecurity using regression models and algorithmic weighting procedures. We control for multiple covariates, including GDP, democratization, and population size. We further examined heterogeneity by country- and household-income. Results. Liberal trade policy was not significantly associated with moderate/severe food insecurity after covariate adjustment. However, among households in high-income countries with incomes larger than $25,430 per person per year, a unit increase in the trade policy index (more liberal) corresponded to a 0·07 % (95% CI: -0·10% to -0·04%) reduction in the predicted probability of reporting moderate/severe food insecurity. Among households in the lowest income decile (

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  • Barlow, Pepita & Loopstra, Rachel & Tarasuk, Valerie & Reeves, Aaron, 2020. "Liberal trade policy and food insecurity across the income distribution: an observational analysis in 132 countries, 2014–17," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104409, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:104409
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    Keywords

    ES/N017358/1;

    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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