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Adjustment to the Asymmetric Shocks and Currency Unions: the Case of Belarus and Russia

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  • Chernookiy Valery

Abstract

The paper analyzes mechanism of adjustment to the asymmetric shocks in terms of trade in possible currency union of Belarus and Russia. It is emphasized the role of real exchange rate in this process. An empirical analysis based on panel data confirms the asymmetric effect of fuel price changes on the equilibrium real exchange rate in two countries. At the same time, according to our estimates, real exchange rate changes affect significantly real output and its structure in Belarus. On the base of analysis provided, conclusion is made about necessity to create a fiscal stabilization mechanism which would allow to smooth negative effect of asymmetric shocks on Belarusian economy under currency union.

Suggested Citation

  • Chernookiy Valery, 2005. "Adjustment to the Asymmetric Shocks and Currency Unions: the Case of Belarus and Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 05-07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:05-07e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek & Mr. Julian Berengaut, 2006. "Beauty Queens and Wallflowers: Currency Unions in the Middle East and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2006/226, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2014. "Spillover Effects in the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus," EcoMod2014 7160, EcoMod.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Belarus; Russia; currency union; asymmetric shocks; terms of trade; real exchange rate.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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