IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2018-57.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fuel prices and road accident outcomes in New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Rohan Best
  • Paul J. Burke

Abstract

Recent years have seen a spike in New Zealand’s road death toll, a phenomenon also seen in some other countries such as Australia. This paper analyses the short-run impact of fuel prices on road accident outcomes in New Zealand, including the numbers of road deaths, accidents, and injuries. Using data for the period 1989–2017, we find a negative relationship between fuel prices and key road-risk outcome variables, including the number of road deaths. There are similar results for models in levels and first differences. The number of serious injuries to cyclists tends to increase when fuel prices are high, however. Lower fuel prices appear to have contributed to New Zealand’s recent uptick in road accidents, pushing against the long-term trend of improved road safety.

Suggested Citation

  • Rohan Best & Paul J. Burke, 2018. "Fuel prices and road accident outcomes in New Zealand," CAMA Working Papers 2018-57, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2018-57
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2018-11/57_2018_best_burke.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    2. Paul J. Burke & Ataklti Teame, 2018. "Fuel Prices and Road Deaths in Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(2), pages 146-161, June.
    3. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    4. Brons, Martijn & Nijkamp, Peter & Pels, Eric & Rietveld, Piet, 2008. "A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2105-2122, September.
    5. Wilson, F.A. & Stimpson, J.P. & Hilsenrath, P.E., 2009. "Gasoline prices and their relationship to rising motorcycle fatalities, 1990-2007," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 99(10), pages 1753-1758.
    6. P. A. Scuffham, 2003. "Economic factors and traffic crashes in New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 179-188.
    7. Grabowski, David C. & Morrisey, Michael A., 2006. "Do higher gasoline taxes save lives?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 51-55, January.
    8. Paul J. Burke, 2014. "Green Pricing in the Asia Pacific: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(3), pages 561-575, September.
    9. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    10. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel, 2012. "Demand for gasoline is more price-inelastic than commonly thought," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 201-207.
    11. Burke, Paul J. & Nishitateno, Shuhei, 2013. "Gasoline prices, gasoline consumption, and new-vehicle fuel economy: Evidence for a large sample of countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 363-370.
    12. Nishitateno, Shuhei & Burke, Paul J., 2014. "The motorcycle Kuznets curve," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 116-123.
    13. Wu, De-Min, 1974. "Alternative Tests of Independence between Stochastic Regressors and Disturbances: Finite Sample Results," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 529-546, May.
    14. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, October.
    15. He, Monica M., 2016. "Driving through the Great Recession: Why does motor vehicle fatality decrease when the economy slows down?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1-11.
    16. Paul J. Burke & Shuhei Nishitateno, 2015. "Gasoline Prices And Road Fatalities: International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(3), pages 1437-1450, July.
    17. Chi, G. & Brown, W. & Zhang, X. & Zheng, Y., 2015. "Safer roads owing to higher gasoline prices: How long it takes," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 105(8), pages 119-125.
    18. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Tong & Burke, Paul J., 2020. "The effect of fuel prices on traffic flows: Evidence from New South Wales," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 502-522.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul J. Burke & Ataklti Teame, 2018. "Fuel Prices and Road Deaths in Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(2), pages 146-161, June.
    2. Zhang, Tong & Burke, Paul J., 2020. "The effect of fuel prices on traffic flows: Evidence from New South Wales," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 502-522.
    3. Burke, Paul J. & Yang, Hewen, 2016. "The price and income elasticities of natural gas demand: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 466-474.
    4. Burke, Paul J. & Nishitateno, Shuhei, 2013. "Gasoline prices, gasoline consumption, and new-vehicle fuel economy: Evidence for a large sample of countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 363-370.
    5. Yi-Xuan Gao & Hua Liao & Paul J. Burke & Yi-Ming Wei, 2015. "Road transport energy consumption in the G7 and BRICS: 1973-2010," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 38(4/5/6), pages 342-356.
    6. Gaolu Zou & Kwong Wing Chau, 2020. "Effects of International Crude Oil Prices on Energy Consumption in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Paul J. Burke & Ashani Abayasekara, 2018. "The Price Elasticity of Electricity Demand in the United States: A Three-Dimensional Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(2), pages 123-146, March.
    8. Paul J. Burke & Shuhei Nishitateno, 2015. "Gasoline Prices And Road Fatalities: International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(3), pages 1437-1450, July.
    9. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
    10. Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E., 2007. "Implementing Nonparametric and Semiparametric Estimators," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 74, Elsevier.
    11. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    12. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin Sabro, 2012. "Specification Tests with Weak and Invalid Instruments," MPRA Paper 40185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Edward Ghartey, 2006. "Exchange Pressure, Sterilized Intervention and Monetary Policy in Ghana," EcoMod2006 272100031, EcoMod.
    14. Nikolay Gospodinov & Ian Irvine, 2005. "A ‘long march’ perspective on tobacco use in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 366-393, May.
    15. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.
    16. Burke, Paul J. & Batsuuri, Tsendsuren & Yudhistira, Muhammad Halley, 2017. "Easing the traffic: The effects of Indonesia’s fuel subsidy reforms on toll-road travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 167-180.
    17. Arzaghi, Mohammad & Squalli, Jay, 2015. "How price inelastic is demand for gasoline in fuel-subsidizing economies?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 117-124.
    18. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
    19. Russell Davidson & Victoria Zinde‐Walsh, 2017. "Advances in specification testing," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1595-1631, December.
    20. Michael Jansson & Marcelo J. Moreira, 2006. "Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 681-714, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fuel price; road accident death; road accident injury;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2018-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.