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Quality Risk Aversion, Conjectures, and New Product Diffusion

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  • Francesco Bogliacino
  • Giorgio Rampa

Abstract

In this paper we provide a generalization of the standard models of the diffusion of a new product. Consumers are heterogeneous and risk averse, and the firm is uncertain about the demand curve: both learn from past observations. The attitude towards risk has important effects with regard to the diffusion pattern. In our model, downward-biased signals to consumers can prevent the success of the product, even if its objective quality is high: a “lock-in” result. We show in addition that the standard logistic pattern can be derived from the model. Finally, we discuss the asymptotic behavior of the learning dynamics, with regard to the multiplicity and the stability of equilibria, and to their welfare properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Bogliacino & Giorgio Rampa, 2009. "Quality Risk Aversion, Conjectures, and New Product Diffusion," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_27, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2009_27
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    Cited by:

    1. Giorgio Rampa & Margherita Saraceno, 2014. "Beliefs and Precedent: The Dynamics of Access to Justice," DEM Working Papers Series 084, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Bogliacino, Francesco & Rampa, Giorgio, 2014. "Expectational bottlenecks and the emerging of new organizational forms," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 28-39.
    3. Giorgio Rampa & Margherita Saraceno, 2023. "Conjectures and underpricing in repeated mass disputes with heterogeneous plaintiffs," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 1-32, June.
    4. Francesco Bogliacino & Giorgio Rampa, 2010. "Monopolistic competition and new products: a conjectural equilibrium approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 5(1), pages 55-76, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneity; Multiple equilibria; Lock-in; Product diffusion; Risk aversion.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L15 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Information and Product Quality
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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