IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-04141698.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Fate of Inventions. What can we learn from Bayesian learning in strategic options model of adoption ?

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Baudry

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Edouard Civel

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We develop a game where heterogeneous agents have the option of adopting an invention of uncertain quality or postponing their decision to benefit from others' experience through Bayesian learning. Messages produced on the invention nature are noisy, representing the "teething troubles" of innovation. Our model gives microeconomic foundations to the S-shaped innovation diffusion curves, informational externality inducing strategic delay in agents' behavior. Moreover, noise could nip in the bud the diffusion of inventions: numerical simulations underline a bi-modal distribution of steady states for innovation diffusion, stillborn or fully developed, bringing to light a reputational valley of death for inventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Baudry & Edouard Civel, 2018. "The Fate of Inventions. What can we learn from Bayesian learning in strategic options model of adoption ?," Working Papers hal-04141698, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141698
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141698
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04141698/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thijssen, Jacco J.J. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2012. "Symmetric equilibrium strategies in game theoretic real option models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 219-225.
    2. Marc Baudry, 2008. "Un modèle canonique d'option réelle bayesienne et son application au principe de précaution," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 89, pages 91-119.
    3. Han T.J. Smit & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2006. "Real options and games: Competition, alliances and other applications of valuation and strategy," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 95-112.
    4. Jenner, Steffen & Groba, Felix & Indvik, Joe, 2013. "Assessing the strength and effectiveness of renewable electricity feed-in tariffs in European Union countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 385-401.
    5. Bronwyn H. Hall, 2004. "Innovation and Diffusion," NBER Working Papers 10212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    7. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Real options and preemption under incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 619-643, February.
    8. Marc Baudry & Clément Bonnet, 2016. "Demand pull isntruments and the development of wind power in Europe: A counter-factual analysis," Working Papers 1607, Chaire Economie du climat.
    9. Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2010. "Preemption in a real option game with a first mover advantage and player-specific uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(6), pages 2448-2462, November.
    10. Cabral, Luis M. B., 1990. "On the adoption of innovations with 'network' externalities," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 299-308, June.
    11. Avner Shaked & John Sutton, 1982. "Relaxing Price Competition Through Product Differentiation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(1), pages 3-13.
    12. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2010. "Investment, uncertainty and pre-emption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 278-287, May.
    13. Shiller, Robert J, 1995. "Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 181-185, May.
    14. Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February.
    15. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    16. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 4, pages 76-84, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Claude Henry, 1974. "Investment decisions under uncertainty: The "irreversibility effect"," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/327343, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    18. Rode, Johannes & Weber, Alexander, 2016. "Does localized imitation drive technology adoption? A case study on rooftop photovoltaic systems in Germany," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 38-48.
    19. H. Peyton Young, 2009. "Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence, and Social Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1899-1924, December.
    20. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
    21. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
    22. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    23. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    24. Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D., 1999. "Bayesian learning, growth, and pollution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 491-518, February.
    25. Chamley, Christophe & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1065-1085, September.
    26. Rao, K. Usha & Kishore, V.V.N., 2010. "A review of technology diffusion models with special reference to renewable energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 1070-1078, April.
    27. Gale, Douglas, 1996. "What have we learned from social learning?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 617-628, April.
    28. Smit, Han T.J. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2006. "Real options and games: Competition, alliances and other applications of valuation and strategy," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 95-112.
    29. Rode, Johannes & Weber, Alexander, 2016. "Does localized imitation drive technology adoption? A case study on rooftop photovoltaic systems in Germany," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 38-48.
    30. Beck, Marisa & Rivers, Nicholas & Wigle, Randall, 2018. "How do learning externalities influence the evaluation of Ontario's renewables support policies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 86-99.
    31. Jensen, Richard, 1982. "Adoption and diffusion of an innovation of uncertain profitability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 182-193, June.
    32. Xiong, Hang & Payne, Diane & Kinsella, Stephen, 2016. "Peer effects in the diffusion of innovations: Theory and simulation," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-13.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tetsuya Kasahara, 2015. "Strategic Technology Adoption Under Dispersed Information and Information Learning," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(06), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Mira Frick & Yuhta Ishii, 2015. "Innovation Adoption by Forward-Looking Social Learners," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1877, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Matthew Doyle, 2010. "Informational externalities, strategic delay, and optimal investment subsidies," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 941-966, August.
    4. Robert S. Pindyck, 2006. "Uncertainty In Environmental Economics," NBER Working Papers 12752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2008. "Optimal diversity: Increasing returns versus recombinant innovation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(3-4), pages 565-580, December.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2003:i:21:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    8. Marc Baudry & Edouard Civel & Camille Tévenart, 2023. "Land allocation and the adoption of innovative practices in agriculture: a real option modelling of the underlying hidden costs," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-1, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Liqun Liu & Andrew J. Rettenmaier & Thomas R. Saving, 2019. "Staying the Course or Rolling the Dice: Time Horizon’s Effect on the Propensity to Take Risk," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 66-85.
    10. Charles Sims & David Finnoff, 2016. "Opposing Irreversibilities and Tipping Point Uncertainty," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(4), pages 985-1022.
    11. Saltari, Enrico & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2011. "The effects of environmental policies on the abatement investment decisions of a green firm," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 666-685, September.
    12. Claude Henry & Marc Henry, 2002. "Formalization and applications of the Precautionary Principle," Working Papers hal-00243001, HAL.
    13. Richard S. J. Tol & In Chang Hwang & Frédéric Reynès, 2012. "The Effect of Learning on Climate Policy under Fat-tailed Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 5312, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    14. Cavatorta, Elisa & Guarino, Antonio & Huck, Steffen, 2024. "Social learning with partial and aggregate information: Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 292-307.
    15. Narain, Urvashi & Hanemann, W. Michael & Fisher, Anthony C., 2004. "The Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and the Irreversibility Effect," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7nn328qg, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    16. Attanasi, Giuseppe Marco & Montesano, Aldo, 2010. "Testing Value vs Waiting Value in Environmental Decisions under Uncertainty," TSE Working Papers 10-154, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    17. Narain, Urvashi & Hanemann, W. Michael & Fisher, Anthony C, 2007. "The irreversibility effect in environmental decisionmaking," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7bc5t8cf, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    18. Giovanni Immordino, 2005. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Reversal," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 30(2), pages 119-128, December.
    19. Gordon G. Sollars & Sorin Tuluca, 2012. "The Optimal Timing of Strategic Action – A Real Options Approach," Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Innovation, Fundacja Upowszechniająca Wiedzę i Naukę "Cognitione", vol. 8(2), pages 78-95.
    20. Sgrignoli, P. & Agliari, E. & Burioni, R. & Schianchi, A., 2015. "Instability and network effects in innovative markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 260-271.
    21. Guillouet, Louise & Martimort, David, 2023. "Acting in the Darkness: Towards some Foundations for the Precautionary Principle," TSE Working Papers 23-1411, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jul 2024.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Innovation diffusion ; Invention adoption ; Information ; Strategic options ; Bayesian learning.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • L15 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Information and Product Quality
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141698. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.