IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecr/col022/46729.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The main drivers of arabica coffee prices in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Aliaga Lordemann, Javier
  • Mora-García, Claudio
  • Mulder, Nanno

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determinants of arabica green coffee prices in Latin American countries using a time series analysis and panel data methods. For this purpose, we construct a panel of different coffee prices: Coffee Organization (ICO) composite prices for Brazilian Naturals, Colombian Milds, and Other Milds; prices paid by the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros de Colombia (FNC) to coffee growers; and farm gate prices by country. The results show that the Brazilian Real to USD real exchange rate, inflation, and rain in January affect prices positively. In contrast, green coffee inventories, the oil price, and the Colombian Peso to USD real exchange rate negatively affect coffee prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Mora-García, Claudio & Mulder, Nanno, 2021. "The main drivers of arabica coffee prices in Latin America," Documentos de Proyectos 46729, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col022:46729
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/46729
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    3. Anthony N. Rezitis, 2015. "The relationship between agricultural commodity prices, crude oil prices and US dollar exchange rates: a panel VAR approach and causality analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 403-434, May.
    4. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
    5. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    6. Philip Garcia, 2004. "A selected review of agricultural commodity futures and options markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(3), pages 235-272, September.
    7. Barry Goodwin & Randy Schnepf & Erik Dohlman, 2005. "Modelling soybean prices in a changing policy environment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 253-263.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14980 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Westcott, Paul C. & Hoffman, Linwood A., 1999. "Price Determination for Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government Programs," Technical Bulletins 33581, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Cooke, Bryce & Robles, Miguel, 2009. "Recent food prices movements: A time series analysis," IFPRI discussion papers 942, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, April.
    12. Cavalcanti, Tiago V. de V. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2011. "Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 305-318.
    13. Anthony N. Rezitis, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Prices, Crude Oil Prices and US Dollar Exchange Rates using Panel Data Econometric Methods," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 851-868.
    14. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
    15. Westcott, Paul C. & Hull, David B. & Green, Robert C., 1985. "Relationships between Quarterly Corn Prices and Stocks," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 37(1), pages 1-7.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tiago V. De V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 857-873, September.
    2. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Do sovereign wealth funds dampen the negative effects of commodity price volatility?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 18-27.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 2012/012, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Samuel Guérineau & Hélène Ehrhart, 2012. "The impact of high and volatile commodity prices on public finances: Evidence from developing countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-00659100, HAL.
    5. Tony Addison & Atanu Ghoshray & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2016. "Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 47-61, February.
    6. Hélène Ehrhart & Samuel Guérineau, 2012. "Commodity price volatility and Tax revenues: Evidence from developing countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-00658210, HAL.
    7. Kizito Uyi Ehigiamusoe & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2019. "Influence of Real Exchange Rate on the Finance-Growth Nexus in the West African Region," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Tony Addison & Atanu Ghoshray & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2016. "Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 47-61, February.
    9. M, Ramachandran & Maheswari, D., 2022. "Asymmetry in forex market intervention: Does it reflect fear of reserve inadequacy?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    10. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    11. Christian Hubert Ebeke, 2011. "Remittances, Countercyclicality, Openness and Government Size," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 77(4), pages 89-114.
    12. Carl Grekou, 2016. "Does the exchange rate regime shape currency misalignments in emerging and developing countries?," Working Papers hal-04141583, HAL.
    13. Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & Saunders, Charles J. & Voia, Marcel, 2021. "Dynamic panels with MIDAS covariates: Nonlinearity, estimation and fit," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 589-605.
    14. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2013. "Are Global Food Prices Becoming More Volatile and More Persistent?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-22, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    15. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    16. Christian EBEKE, 2010. "Transferts des migrants, ouverture sur l'extérieur et dépenses publiques dans les pays en développement," Working Papers 201011, CERDI.
    17. Lee Robinson & Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2012. "China’s Ambiguous Impacts on Commodity-Dependent Countries: the Example of Sub-Saharan Africa (with a Focus on Zambia)," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-39, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. Demir, Firat, 2013. "Growth under exchange rate volatility: Does access to foreign or domestic equity markets matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 74-88.
    19. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou, 2016. "Currency Misalignments in emerging and developing countries: reassessing the role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Post-Print hal-01549902, HAL.
    20. Kizito Uyi Ehigiamusoe & Mohamad Shaharudin Samsurijan, 2021. "What matters for finance‐growth nexus? A critical survey of macroeconomic stability, institutions, financial and economic development," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5302-5320, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecr:col022:46729. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Biblioteca CEPAL (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eclaccl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.