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Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets

Author

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  • Goto, Mika

    (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry)

  • Karolyi, G. Andrew

    (Ohio State U)

Abstract

This study analyzes how electricity price volatility evolves over time for different electricity trading hubs in several deregulated markets around the world. The goal is to uncover common features across hubs within each market in the daily spot price volatility processes related to seasonality, mean reversion, conditionally autoregressive heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and possibly time-dependent jumps. We apply our analysis to markets in U.S., Nord Pool, and Australia. We show that ARCH and time-dependent jumps are important statistical features of price volatility across all hubs in each market but with different levels of intensity. We also find that inferences about the role of seasonality components are sensitive to modeling of the ARCH and jump features.

Suggested Citation

  • Goto, Mika & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets," Working Paper Series 2004-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2004-12
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    File URL: http://www.cob.ohio-state.edu/fin/dice/papers/2004/2004-12.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Forecasting spot price volatility using the short-term forward curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1826-1833.
    2. Chan, Kam Fong & Gray, Philip & van Campen, Bart, 2008. "A new approach to characterizing and forecasting electricity price volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 728-743.
    3. Guthrie, Graeme & Videbeck, Steen, 2007. "Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5614-5621, November.
    4. Angelica Gianfreda, 2010. "Volatility and Volume Effects in European Electricity Spot Markets," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 39(1‐2), pages 47-63, February.
    5. Oak, Neeraj & Lawson, Daniel & Champneys, Alan, 2014. "Performance comparison of renewable incentive schemes using optimal control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 44-57.
    6. Per B. Solibakke, 2022. "Step‐ahead spot price densities using daily synchronously reported prices and wind forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 17-42, January.
    7. Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Realized volatility and price spikes in electricity markets: The importance of observation frequency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1809-1818.
    8. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 758-770, July.
    9. Ioannidis, Filippos & Kosmidou, Kyriaki & Savva, Christos & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2021. "Electricity pricing using a periodic GARCH model with conditional skewness and kurtosis components," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    10. Li, Ming-Jia & Song, Chen-Xi & Tao, Wen-Quan, 2016. "A hybrid model for explaining the short-term dynamics of energy efficiency of China’s thermal power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 738-747.
    11. Nazifi, Fatemeh & Trück, Stefan & Zhu, Liangxu, 2021. "Carbon pass-through rates on spot electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    12. Hipòlit Torró & Julio Lucia, 2008. "Short-term electricity futures prices: Evidence on the time-varying risk premium," Working Papers. Serie EC 2008-08, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    13. Stuart Thomas & Vikash Ramiah & Heather Mitchell & Richard Heaney, 2011. "Seasonal factors and outlier effects in rate of return on electricity spot prices in Australia's National Electricity Market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 355-369.
    14. Efimova, Olga & Serletis, Apostolos, 2014. "Energy markets volatility modelling using GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 264-273.
    15. Lucia, Julio J. & Torró, Hipòlit, 2011. "On the risk premium in Nordic electricity futures prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 750-763, October.
    16. Palacio, Sebastián M., 2020. "Predicting collusive patterns in a liberalized electricity market with mandatory auctions of forward contracts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. Lo Prete, Chiara & Norman, Catherine S., 2013. "Rockets and feathers in power futures markets? Evidence from the second phase of the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 312-321.
    18. Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Moore, J. & Horowitz, I., 2011. "Wind generation and zonal-market price divergence: Evidence from Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3928-3938, July.
    19. Rubin, Ofir David, 2010. "Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002361, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    22. Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Wagner, Christian, 2009. "Reforming minute reserve policy in Germany: A step towards efficient markets?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3513-3519, September.
    23. Vítor Marques & Isabel Soares & Adelino Fortunato, 2012. "Application of a Structural Model to the Spanish Electricity Wholesale Market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 65-108.
    24. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number hsbook0601, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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