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The volatility of prices in the English and Welsh electricity pool

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  • Terry Robinson
  • Andrzej Baniak

Abstract

The volatility of spot prices has been a notable feature of the English and Welsh Electricity Pool since its formation in 1990. This study investigates the possibility that the volatility of spot prices is strongly affected by the functioning of the contract market for electricity. This paper suggest that generators with market power may have an incentive to create volatility in the spot market in order to benefit from higher risk premia in the contract market. A simple theoretical model is used to illustrate this argument. Nonparametric techniques are used to test for changes in volatility after the expiry of the coal contracts in 1993 and during the price cap of 1994-1996. Strongly significant increases in volatility are found in the latter period.

Suggested Citation

  • Terry Robinson & Andrzej Baniak, 2002. "The volatility of prices in the English and Welsh electricity pool," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1487-1495.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:12:p:1487-1495
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840110108063
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    Cited by:

    1. Renato Fernandes & Isabel Soares, 2022. "Reviewing Explanatory Methodologies of Electricity Markets: An Application to the Iberian Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Shukla, Umesh Kumar & Thampy, Ashok, 2011. "Analysis of competition and market power in the wholesale electricity market in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2699-2710, May.
    3. Sandro Sapio, 2012. "Modeling the distribution of day-ahead electricity returns: a comparison," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1935-1949, December.
    4. Worthington, Andrew & Kay-Spratley, Adam & Higgs, Helen, 2005. "Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 337-350, March.
    5. Hipòlit Torró, 2007. "Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool," Working Papers 2007.88, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Sherzod N. Tashpulatov, 2022. "Modeling Electricity Price Dynamics Using Flexible Distributions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-15, May.
    7. Karakatsani Nektaria V & Bunn Derek W., 2010. "Fundamental and Behavioural Drivers of Electricity Price Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, September.
    8. Paul Twomey & Richard Green & Karsten Neuhoff & David Newbery, 2005. "A Review of the Monitoring of Market Power: The Possible Roles of TSOs in Monitoring for Market Power Issues in Congested Transmission Systems," Working Papers 0502, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    9. Štefan Bojnec & Alan Križaj, 2021. "Electricity Markets during the Liberalization: The Case of a European Union Country," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    10. Sherzod N. Tashpulatov, 2018. "The Impact of Behavioral and Structural Remedies on Electricity Prices: The Case of the England and Wales Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-24, December.
    11. Goto, Mika & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets," Working Paper Series 2004-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    12. Helen Higgs & Andrew C. Worthington, 2005. "Systematic Features of High-Frequency Volatility in Australian Electricity Markets: Intraday Patterns, Information Arrival and Calendar Effects," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 23-42.
    13. Denny, Eleanor & O'Mahoney, Amy & Lannoye, Eamonn, 2017. "Modelling the impact of wind generation on electricity market prices in Ireland: An econometric versus unit commitment approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 109-119.
    14. Andrea Petrella & Sandro Sapio, 2010. "No PUN intended: A time series analysis of the Italian day-ahead electricity prices," RSCAS Working Papers 2010/03, European University Institute.
    15. Li, Ying & Flynn, Peter C., 2004. "Deregulated power prices: comparison of volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(14), pages 1591-1601, September.
    16. Sherzod Tashpulatov & Lubomir Lizal, 2012. "Can Producers Apply a Capacity Cutting Strategy to Increase Prices? The Case of the England and Wales Electricity Market," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp465, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    17. Tashpulatov, Sherzod N., 2013. "Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: The case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 81-90.
    18. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2003. "A multivariate GARCH analysis of the domestic transmission of energy commodity prices and volatility: A comparison of the peak and off-peak periods in the Australian electricity spot market," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 140, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    19. Christian Redl & Derek Bunn, 2013. "Determinants of the premium in forward contracts," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 90-111, January.
    20. Tashpulatov, Sherzod N., 2015. "Analysis of electricity industry liberalization in Great Britain: How did the bidding behavior of electricity producers change?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 24-34.
    21. Lízal, Lubomír M. & Tashpulatov, Sherzod N., 2014. "Do producers apply a capacity cutting strategy to increase prices? The case of the England and Wales electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 114-124.
    22. Per B. Solibakke, 2022. "Step‐ahead spot price densities using daily synchronously reported prices and wind forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 17-42, January.
    23. Sherzod N. Tashpulatov, 2021. "The Impact of Regulatory Reforms on Demand Weighted Average Prices," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-15, May.
    24. Hesamzadeh, Mohammad R. & Biggar, Darryl R. & Hosseinzadeh, Nasser, 2011. "The TC-PSI indicator for forecasting the potential for market power in wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5988-5998, October.

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