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On the risk premium in Nordic electricity futures prices

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  • Lucia, Julio J.
  • Torró, Hipòlit

Abstract

This paper examines empirically the relationship between electricity spot and futures prices, by analysing a decade of data for a set of short term-to-maturity futures contracts traded in the Nordic Power Exchange. It is found that, on average, there are significant positive risk premiums in short-term electricity futures prices. The significance and size of the premiums, however, varies seasonally over the year; whereas it is greatest during winter, it is zero in summer. It is also found that time-varying risk premiums are significantly related to unexpectedly low reservoir levels. Furthermore, before the unprecedented supply-shock that hit the market around the end of year 2002, the risk premiums were related to the variance and the skewness of future spot prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucia, Julio J. & Torró, Hipòlit, 2011. "On the risk premium in Nordic electricity futures prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 750-763, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:20:y:2011:i:4:p:750-763
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