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Implied Comparative Advantage

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  • Hausmann, Ricardo

    (Harvard University and Santa Fe Institute)

  • Hidalgo, Cesar A.

    (MIT and ISCV, Valparaiso)

  • Stock, Daniel P.

    (Harvard University and MIT)

  • Yildirim, Muhammed A.

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Ricardian theories of production often take the comparative advantage of locations in different industries to be uncorrelated. They are seen as the outcome of the realization of a random extreme value distribution. These theories do not take a stance regarding the counterfactual or implied comparative advantage if the country does not make the product. Here, we find that industries in countries and cities tend to have a relative size that is systematically correlated with that of other industries. Industries also tend to have a relative size that is systematically correlated with the size of the industry in similar countries and cities. We illustrate this using export data for a large set of countries and for city-level data for the US, Chile and India. These stylized facts can be rationalized using a Ricardian framework where comparative advantage is correlated across technologically related industries. More interestingly, the deviations between actual industry intensity and the implied intensity obtained from that of related industries or related locations tend to be highly predictive of future industry growth, especially at horizons of a decade or more. This result holds both at the intensive as well as the extensive margin, indicating that future comparative advantage is already implied in todays pattern of production.

Suggested Citation

  • Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar A. & Stock, Daniel P. & Yildirim, Muhammed A., 2014. "Implied Comparative Advantage," Working Paper Series rwp14-003, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp14-003
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    4. Eduardo Lora, 2016. "The Path to Labor Formality: Urban Agglomeration and the Emergence of Complex Industries," Growth Lab Working Papers 83, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    5. Dario Diodato & Frank Neffke & Neave O'Clery, 2016. "Agglomeration Economies: The Heterogeneous Contribution of Human Capital and Value Chains," CID Working Papers 76, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    6. Neave O'Clery & Eduardo Lora, 2016. "City Size, Distance and Formal Employment," Growth Lab Working Papers 77, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    7. Diodato, Dario & Neffke, Frank & O’Clery, Neave, 2018. "Why do industries coagglomerate? How Marshallian externalities differ by industry and have evolved over time," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-26.
    8. Julien Gourdon & Laura Hering & Stéphanie Monjon & Sandra Poncet, 2019. "Trade policy repercussions: the role of local product space -Evidence from China," Working Papers hal-02065779, HAL.
    9. Dmitry Kuznetsov, 2021. "Export Product Scope of Russian Firms and Proximity to Local Comparative Advantages [Ассортимент Экспорта Российских Предприятий И Близость К Локальным Сравнительным Преимуществам]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 56-81, February.
    10. Julien Gourdon & Laura Hering & Stéphanie Monjon & Sandra Poncet, 2022. "Estimating the Repercussions from China’s Export VAT Rebate Policy," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03274542, HAL.
    11. Lyubimov, Ivan L. (Любимов, Иван) & Gvozdeva, Margarita V. (Гвоздева, Маргарита) & Lysyuk, Maria A. (Лысюк, Мария), 2018. "Measuring Regional Development with the Network Theory Approach [Использование Теории Сетей При Составлении Рейтингов Развития Региональных Экономик]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 206-233, June.
    12. Aribah Aslam & Amjad Naveed & Ghulam Shabbir, 2021. "Is it an institution, digital or social inclusion that matters for inclusive growth? A panel data analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 333-355, February.
    13. Hausmann, Ricardo & Morales, Jose Ramon & Santos, Miguel Angel, 2016. "Economic Complexity in Panama: Assessing Opportunities for Productive Diversification," Working Paper Series rwp16-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    14. Neave O'Clery & Samuel Heroy & Francois Hulot & Mariano Beguerisse-D'iaz, 2019. "Unravelling the forces underlying urban industrial agglomeration," Papers 1903.09279, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    15. Giovanni Dosi & Matteo Tranchero, 2018. "The Role of Comparative Advantage, Endowments and Technology in Structural Transformation," LEM Papers Series 2018/33, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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