IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20253047.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Word2Prices: embedding central bank communications for inflation prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Bokan, Nikola
  • Lenza, Michele
  • Araujo, Douglas
  • Comazzi, Fabio Alberto

Abstract

Word embeddings are vectors of real numbers associated with words, designed to capture semantic and syntactic similarity between the words in a corpus of text. We estimate the word embeddings of the European Central Bank’s introductory statements at monetary policy press conferences by using a simple natural language processing model (Word2Vec), only based on the information and model parameters available as of each press conference. We show that a measure based on such embeddings contributes to improve core inflation forecasts multiple quarters ahead. Other common textual analysis techniques, such as dictionary-based metrics or sentiment metrics do not obtain the same results. The information contained in the embeddings remains valuable for out-of-sample forecasting even after controlling for the central bank inflation forecasts, which are an important input for the introductory statements. JEL Classification: E31, E37, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Bokan, Nikola & Lenza, Michele & Araujo, Douglas & Comazzi, Fabio Alberto, 2025. "Word2Prices: embedding central bank communications for inflation prediction," Working Paper Series 3047, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253047
    Note: 2613775
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3047~cb0f0cf37f.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gardner, Ben & Scotti, Chiara & Vega, Clara, 2022. "Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 387-409.
    2. Haroon Mumtaz & Jumana Saleheen & Roxane Spitznagel, 2023. "Keep it Simple: Central Bank Communication and Asset Prices," Working Papers 960, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2021. "Interest-rate setting and communication at the ECB in its first twenty years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan M. Londono & Mehrdad Samadi, 2023. "The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options," International Finance Discussion Papers 1376, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. van Eyden, Reneé & Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Investor sentiment and multi-scale positive and negative stock market bubbles in a panel of G7 countries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. Neugebauer, Frederik & Russnak, Jan & Zimmermann, Lilli & Camarero Garcia, Sebastian, 2024. "Effects of the ECB’s communication on government bond spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Qiu, Yue & Xie, Tian & Xie, Wenjing & Zheng, Xiangzhong, 2023. "Federal policy announcements and capital reallocation: Insights from inflow and outflow trends in the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Grotteria, Marco, 2022. "Real-time price discovery via verbal communication: Method and application to Fedspeak," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 993-1025.
    6. Leonardo Gambacorta & Salvatore Polizzi & Alessio Reghezza & Enzo Scannella, 2023. "Do banks practice what they preach? Brown lending and environmental disclosure in the euro area," BIS Working Papers 1143, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Christoph E. Boehm & T. Niklas Kroner, 2020. "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle," Working Papers 677, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    8. Philip N. Jefferson, 2024. "Communicating about Monetary Policy: A speech at Central Bank Communications: Theory and Practice,” a conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio., May 13, 2024," Speech 98225, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Philip N. Jefferson, 2025. "Reading between the Lines? Textual Analysis of Central Bank Communications: A speech at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, Califor," Speech 99608, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Spandan Banerjee & Rajendra N. Paramanik & Rounak Sil & Unninarayanan Kurup, 2024. "When all speak, should we listen? A cross‐country analysis of disagreement in policymaking and its implications," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 53(2), July.
    11. Conrad, Christian & Schoelkopf, Julius Theodor & Tushteva, Nikoleta, 2023. "Long-Term Volatility Shapes the Stock Market’s Sensitivity to News," Working Papers 0739, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    12. Etienne Briand & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2024. "Inflation, Attention and Expectations," Working Papers 24-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Dec 2024.
    13. Baranowski, Pawel & Bennani, Hamza & Doryń, Wirginia, 2023. "Stock price reaction to ECB communication: Introductory Statements vs. Questions & Answers," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Ilias Filippou & James Mitchell & My T. Nguyen, 2023. "The FOMC versus the Staff: Do Policymakers Add Value in Their Tales?," Working Papers 23-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    15. Tetiana Yukhymenko & Oleh Sorochan, 2024. "Impact of the Central Bank's Communication on Macrofinancial Outcomes," Working Papers 01/2024, National Bank of Ukraine.
    16. Bennett Schmanski & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2023. "Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Cem Çakmakli & Selva Demi̇ralp & Gökhan Şahi̇n Güneş, 2024. "Do Financial Markets Respond to Populist Rhetoric?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(3), pages 541-567, June.
    18. Dimitris Anastasiou & Apostolos Katsafados, 2023. "Bank deposits and textual sentiment: When an European Central Bank president's speech is not just a speech," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(1), pages 55-87, January.
    19. Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2022. "The demand and supply of information about inflation," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-27, CIRANO.
    20. Luca Alfieri & Mustafa Hakan Eratalay & Darya Lapitskaya & Rajesh Sharma, 2022. "The Effects Of The Ecb Communications On Financial Markets Before And During Covid-19 Pandemic," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 140, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank texts; embeddings; forecasting; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253047. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.