IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/era/wpaper/dp-2023-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The COVID-19 Pandemic and World Machinery Trade Network

Author

Listed:
  • Kozo Kiyota

    (Keio University, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI), and Tokyo Center for Economic Research (TCER))

Abstract

In light of the importance of the machinery trade in global trade, this study examines whether the patterns of machinery exports changed significantly after the COVID19 pandemic. Frameworks of network analysis and structural break analysis are applied to monthly level bilateral export data from January 2016 to March 2022. The main findings are threefold. First, positive structural change is found in exports in major machinery-exporting countries. Second, negative structural change in centrality is found in Japan and some ASEAN Member States (AMS), which implies a decline in the relative importance of these countries in the global machinery network. Third, the decline in Japanese centrality was not caused by the decline in export values or number of destination countries. Rather, it is attributable to the decline in the centrality of Japan's export destination countries such as AMS. Noting that Japan has a relatively strong trade relationship with AMS, these results together suggest that the negative shock of the pandemic spread throughout the supply chain, which led to the decline in the relative importance of some countries - such as Japan - in the global machinery trade network.

Suggested Citation

  • Kozo Kiyota, 2023. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and World Machinery Trade Network," Working Papers DP-2023-10, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    • Handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.eria.org/uploads/media/discussion-papers/FY23/The-COVID-19-Pandemic-and-World-Machinery-Trade-Network.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    2. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2015. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Working Papers 793, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Kiyota, Kozo, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    5. Rebecca Freeman & Richard Baldwin, 2022. "Risks and Global Supply Chains: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 153-180, August.
    6. Christine Arriola & Przemyslaw Kowalski & Frank van Tongeren, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on directions and structure of international trade," OECD Trade Policy Papers 252, OECD Publishing.
    7. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    8. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura & Kenta Yamanouchi, 2022. "East Asian Production Networks Go Beyond the Gravity Prediction," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 21(2), pages 78-101, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agostino Capponi & Chuan Du & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2024. "Are Supply Networks Efficiently Resilient?," NBER Working Papers 32221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kiyota, Kozo, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2019. "Financial dependence and growth: The role of input-output linkages," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 308-328.
    4. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Erik Frohm & Vanessa Gunnella, 2021. "Spillovers in global production networks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 663-680, August.
    6. Lorenzo Burlon, 2015. "Ownership networks and aggregate volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1004, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-68, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    8. Kim, Daisoon, 2021. "Economies of scale and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Julian Di Giovanni & Galina Hale, 2022. "Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3373-3421, December.
    10. Hötte, Kerstin, 2023. "Demand-pull, technology-push, and the direction of technological change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(5).
    11. Mundt, Philipp, 2021. "The formation of input–output architecture: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 89-104.
    12. Zihui Yang & Yinggang Zhou & Xin Cheng, 2020. "Systemic risk in global volatility spillover networks: Evidence from option‐implied volatility indices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 392-409, March.
    13. Ernest Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Dynamical Structure and Spectral Properties of Input-Output Networks," Working Papers 2021-13, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    14. Bartesaghi, Paolo & Clemente, Gian Paolo & Grassi, Rosanna & Luu, Duc Thi, 2022. "The multilayer architecture of the global input-output network and its properties," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 304-341.
    15. Bernstein, Shai & Colonnelli, Emanuele & Giroud, Xavier & Iverson, Benjamin, 2019. "Bankruptcy spillovers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(3), pages 608-633.
    16. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    17. Charles D. Brummitt & Kenan Huremović & Paolo Pin & Matthew H. Bonds & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic development," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 665-672, September.
    18. Wang, Chengwei & Miao, Wang & Lu, Miaomiao, 2022. "Evolution of the Chinese industrial structure: A social network perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. Gunnella, Vanessa & Lebastard, Laura & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma & Serafini, Roberta & Mattioli, Alessandro Zona, 2021. "The impact of the euro on trade: two decades into monetary union," Occasional Paper Series 283, European Central Bank.
    20. Alexeev, Vitali & Maynard, Alex, 2012. "Localized level crossing random walk test robust to the presence of structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3322-3344.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Machinery trade; COVID-19 pandemic; Network; Centrality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ranti Amelia The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ranti Amelia to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eriadid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.