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Furor over the Fed: A President’s Tweets and Central Bank Independence

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Camous
  • Dmitry Matveev

Abstract

We illustrate how financial market data are informative about the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. Federal funds futures are private contracts that reflect investor’s expectations about future monetary policy decisions. By relating price movements of these contracts with President Trump’s tweets on monetary policy, we explore how financial market participants have perceived attempts by the President to influence monetary policy decisions. Our results indicate that market participants expected the Federal Reserve Bank to adjust monetary policy in the direction suggested by President Trump. (JEL codes: E44, E52, and E58)

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Camous & Dmitry Matveev, 2021. "Furor over the Fed: A President’s Tweets and Central Bank Independence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(1), pages 106-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:67:y:2021:i:1:p:106-127.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa020
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ehrmann, Michael, 2024. "Trust in central banks," Working Paper Series 3006, European Central Bank.
    2. Ehrmann, Michael & Wabitsch, Alena, 2022. "Central bank communication with non-experts – A road to nowhere?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 69-85.
    3. Michael Ehrmann & Paul Hubert, 2022. "Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements," Working papers 897, Banque de France.
    4. Barthélemy, Jean & Mengus, Eric & Plantin, Guillaume, 2024. "The central bank, the treasury, or the market: Which one determines the price level?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    5. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2024. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1185-1211, September.
    6. Travis Adams & Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Papers 2305.16164, arXiv.org.
    7. Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Travis Adams & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; financial markets; credibility; central bank research;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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