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The aggregate and distributional implications of credit shocks on housing and rental markets

Author

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  • Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo
  • Castellanos, Juan
  • Hannon, Andrew

Abstract

We build a model of the aggregate housing and rental markets in which houseprices and rents are determined endogenously. Households can choose their housingtenure status (renters, homeowners, or landlords) and the size of their homes dependingon their age, income and wealth. We use our model to study the impact of changesin credit conditions on house prices, rents and household welfare. We analyse theintroduction of policies that limited loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) ratiosof newly originated mortgages in Ireland in 2015 and find that, consistent with empiricalevidence, they mitigate house price growth but increase rents. Homeownership ratesdrop, and young and middle-income households are negatively affected by the reform.An unexpected permanent rise in real interest rates has similar effects – by makingmortgages more expensive and alternative investments more attractive for landlords, itincreases rents relative to house prices. JEL Classification: D15, E21, E30, E51, G51

Suggested Citation

  • Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Castellanos, Juan & Hannon, Andrew, 2024. "The aggregate and distributional implications of credit shocks on housing and rental markets," Working Paper Series 2977, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242977
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2024. "Homeownership and Portfolio Choice over the Generations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 207-237, January.
    2. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    3. Cristian Badarinza & John Y. Campbell & Tarun Ramadorai, 2018. "What Calls to ARMs? International Evidence on Interest Rates and the Choice of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 2275-2288, May.
    4. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1317-1350.
    5. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 499-529, October.
    6. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    7. Francisco Amaral & Martin Dohmen & Sebastian Kohl & Moritz Schularick, 2024. "Interest Rates and the Spatial Polarization of Housing Markets," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 89-104, March.
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    13. Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella & Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2020. "Nonlinear Household Earnings Dynamics, Self-Insurance, and Welfare," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 890-926.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit conditions; homeownership; house prices; life-cycle; macro-prudential policy; rental prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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